Futures Early Morning Peak - Audio Version
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Macroeconomic News
1. According to foreign media reports, the APEC Climate Centre predicts that from January to March 2025, a 'La Niña' phenomenon that may bring heavy rain and floods to Asia (especially India) could occur.
2. According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President-elect Trump stated on the 16th that China and the U.S. can work together to solve all the world's problems. Trump made this statement during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. 'China and the U.S. can solve all the world's problems together, just think about it, it's very important,' Trump said.
3. CCTV International News reports that recent statements from Hamas and Israel seem to show signs of both sides 'softening'. According to sources cited by Israeli and Arab media, negotiations have made some progress, but the differences between the two sides have not yet been clearly resolved.
4. Palestinian sources say that ceasefire negotiations have entered the 'almost final' stage. According to sources, the release of hostages will be carried out in two phases.
Global Futures Market Movements
1. London basic metals closed lower across the board, with LME copper down 0.62% to $9006.5/ton, LME zinc down 0.64% to $3036.5/ton, LME nickel down 1.17% to $15525/ton, LME aluminum down 1.15% to $2537/ton, LME tin down 0.21% to $29185/ton, and LME lead down 0.77% to $1985/ton.
2. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures main contracts all closed lower, with soybean futures down 0.53% to 976.75 cents/bushel; corn futures down 0.34% to 443.5 cents/bushel; and wheat futures down 0.95% to 544.75 cents/bushel.
3. International precious metal futures closed slightly lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.24% to $2663.5/ounce, and COMEX silver futures down 0.18% to $31/ounce.
4. International oil prices fell across the board, with the U.S. oil contract for February 2025 down 0.67% to $69.82 per barrel. The Brent oil contract for February 2025 fell 0.78% to $73.33 per barrel.
5. Domestic commodity futures night trading mostly closed lower, with most energy and chemical products declining. Rubber prices have fallen by 2.88%, with rubber down 2.55%, butadiene rubber down 1.44%, and soda ash down 1.36%. The black series fell across the board, with coke down 1.52%, iron ore down 1.31%, and coking coal down 1.15%. Agricultural products showed weak performance, with soybeans down 3.15%, rapeseed oil down 2.61%, soybean oil down 1.8%, rapeseed meal down 1.44%, palm oil down 1.28%, and soybean meal down 1.26%. Basic metals were mixed, with lead up 0.97%, stainless steel up 0.35%, alumina up 0.17%, zinc down 0.55%, copper down 0.63%, and nickel down 1.2%. Gold fell by 0.3%, and silver fell by 0.48%.
Black Series Hot News
1. According to Mysteel, from December 9 to December 15, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 11.255 million tons, a decrease of 459,000 tons compared to the previous period, with inventory declining for two consecutive periods, and the absolute amount is at a relatively low level since the fourth quarter.
2. According to Mysteel, Kunsteel plans to carry out maintenance on a 2500m³ blast furnace on January 9, with an average daily impact on crude steel production of 7,000 tons; the end date for the maintenance is yet to be determined.
3. According to Mysteel, Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the price for silicon manganese at 6,350 yuan/ton in December, with the first round of inquiries at 6,280 yuan/ton. The silicon manganese price in November was 6,280 yuan/ton. December's purchasing volume: 13,600 tons. November's purchasing volume: 12,300 tons.
Agricultural Products Hot News
1. According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, last week, domestic oil factories saw an increase in soybean inventory and a decrease in soybean meal inventory. Monitoring shows that as of December 13, the commercial inventory of imported soybeans in major national oil factories was 6.61 million tons, an increase of 590,000 tons week-on-week, an increase of 780,000 tons month-on-month, and an increase of 1.32 million tons year-on-year, which is 2.05 million tons higher than the average of the past three years.
2. According to foreign media, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) stated in its monthly outlook report that global sugar consumption is expected to grow by 1.8% in the 2024/25 fiscal year, driven by falling sugar prices and stable global economic growth; supported by increased textile consumption in countries such as China, India, and Bangladesh, global cotton demand is expected to grow by 3.5% in the 2024/25 fiscal year.
3. According to foreign media reports, based on data released by the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories of India (NFCSF), as of December 15, 2024, a total of 472 sugar factories nationwide have begun crushing for the 2024-25 fiscal year, accumulating a sugarcane crushing of 71.924 million tons and producing 6.085 million tons of sugar. In the same period last year, 501 sugar factories began crushing, with a total sugarcane crushing of 85.092 million tons and producing 7.42 million tons of sugar.
4. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) announced that it will maintain the export tax on crude palm oil at 10% for January, but will raise the reference export price for crude palm oil from 4,471.39 ringgit/ton in December to 5,001.72 ringgit/ton in January.
5. According to foreign media, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects that the price of crude palm oil will stabilize above 4,800 ringgit per ton, driven by increased usage in the U.S. biofuel industry leading to a rebound in soybean oil prices, as well as tightening production and inventory in Malaysia.
6. The Guangxi Meteorological Bureau and the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a drought disaster risk warning for sugarcane on December 17: It is expected that the risk of drought disaster for sugarcane in most areas of central and southern Guangxi will reach a high level in the coming ten days.
7. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data showing that private exporters reported sales of 132,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, 187,000 tons of soybeans to Spain, and 170,400 tons of corn to Mexico, all for delivery in the 2024/2025 fiscal year.
8. According to the European Commission, as of December 15, the EU's soybean import volume for the 2024/25 fiscal year was 6.27 million tons, compared to 5.39 million tons in the same period last year; the palm oil import volume was 1.42 million tons, compared to 1.69 million tons in the same period last year.
Energy and Chemical Hot News
1. According to the China Trade Remedy Information Network, on December 4, 2024, the Indonesian Anti-Dumping Commission announced the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation against polypropylene homopolymers (PP Homopolymer) originating from China, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, and South Africa.
2. According to the statistics from Wood Alliance, from December 9 to December 15, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 7 provinces and 13 ports in China was 56,800 cubic meters, an increase of 10.51% compared to last week.
3. A spokesperson for the European Commission stated that the EU is not interested in maintaining Russia's continued natural gas transit through Ukraine. The Commission is not involved in any negotiations to extend Ukraine's gas transport contract. The EU is prepared to end gas transportation and has taken alternative measures.
4. According to TASS news agency on Tuesday, a third Russian oil tanker sent a distress signal in the Black Sea. Previously, two other tankers were damaged in a storm over the weekend and experienced oil leaks. Although TASS did not provide details about the third tanker, a Telegram account closely related to Russian security agencies, Baza, stated that this tanker is similar to the previous two, all being Volganov ships from over 50 years ago.
5. As of the week ending December 13, the API crude oil inventory in the U.S. recorded -4.694 million barrels, compared to an expectation of -1.85 million barrels and a previous value of 499,000 barrels.
Metal Hot News
1. According to SMM, the environmental inspection storm in Zhengzhou, a key area for aluminum plate and strip production, has resurfaced. The inspection is rigorous, with high requirements, and many local aluminum plate and strip companies have stated that they have limited production as required, with the resumption time yet to be determined.
2. According to SMM, lead recycling plants in Anhui province stated that they need to suspend production in response to the weather warning, and the resumption date will depend on weather changes; production is expected to decline by over 2000 tons/day.
3. On December 17, Tongling Nonferrous announced that the company received a report from its holding subsidiary China Railway Construction Copper Crown, stating that the Mirador copper mine plans to suspend production for 15 days starting from December 16, 2024.
4. U.S. retail sales for November recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, the highest since September, with market expectations of a growth of 0.5%. U.S. retail sales grew at a steady pace in November, mainly driven by a surge in auto purchases, masking uneven consumption performance in other sectors.
Praise 'Futures' Talks - Revealing the Trading Logic of Varieties!
1. Alumina shows weak fluctuations; will prices fluctuate widely?
Guotai Junan Futures analysis pointed out that since the fourth quarter, the average spot price of alumina has declined for the first time, which will have a certain negative impact on futures prices. The current tight supply and demand situation for domestic alumina has not shown any significant relief, providing strong support for high spot prices. Currently, the market's strong reality and weak expectations are prominent, and overall, alumina futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to changes in inventory dynamics and guidance from spot prices for short-term operations.
2. Semi-steel and all-steel tire production maintains a high level; where do rubber prices fall within?
Ruida Futures analysis pointed out that recent rainfall in southern Thailand has decreased, with a slow recovery in supply and high raw material prices. Domestic Yunnan production areas have stopped cutting, with no glue prices, and overall supply of rubber blocks is slightly tight, with prices remaining firm. In Hainan production areas, temperatures have significantly dropped due to cold air, and rubber forest in some areas has already stopped cutting, with fresh rubber water content dropping to around 23-26. Some processing plants have begun to stop collecting raw materials, and production lines have also entered a state of suspension. Recently, the Qingdao bonded warehouse has shown a decrease in inventory, while general trade warehouses have significantly increased inventory. The mixed rubber arriving at the port remains high, coupled with the gradual entry of state reserve rubber into storage, the total inventory in Qingdao is still in a cycle of accumulation. Last week, semi-steel and all-steel tire production maintained a high level, with a slight decrease in capacity utilization, and overall demand remained stable. The RU2505 contract is recommended for short-term trading in the range of 18050-19000, and the NR2502 contract is recommended for short-term trading in the range of 14900-15600.
Recent overview of important futures data and events
1. On December 18, the WBMS will release the global metal supply and demand report for October, where the previous global nickel market in September showed a surplus of 2800 tons, aluminum showed a surplus of 13500 tons, and copper showed a shortage of 160500 tons. Attention should be paid to the changes in supply and demand.
2. On December 19 at 3:00 PM, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced. According to CME's 'Fed Watch': the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate until December is 5.3%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 94.7%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate until January next year is 4.1%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 73.7% and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 22.3%.
3. On December 19 at 3:30 PM, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. Powell previously stated that the Federal Reserve could be 'a bit more cautious' regarding interest rate cuts, as the U.S. economy is 'in very good shape.' Powell's remarks may provide more clues about the future path of monetary policy.
4. On December 19 at 21:30, the U.S. will release the revised annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP for the third quarter. Previously, the U.S. announced that the preliminary data for the third quarter's annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP revision remained unchanged at the initial value of 2.8%, slowing down from the 3% growth in the second quarter. However, the GDP report still shows the remarkable resilience of the U.S. economy.
Article forwarded from: Jin Shi Data
