Analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex are optimistic about the cryptocurrency market in 2025. They indicate through multiple indicators that the market has not yet peaked and expect Bitcoin to reach its peak in the third to fourth quarter of next year, with price highs potentially falling between $145,000 and $189,000.
Bitfinex stated in a report released on Monday that the current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, primarily driven by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and spot accumulation. Historical data indicates that 'we are in the mid-cycle,' and with the Bitcoin halving occurring in April 2024, the market could peak around the third to fourth quarter of 2025, approximately 450 days after the halving.
The report also assesses the current market state and future trends based on various indicators. The analysts wrote:
Indicators such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio), NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), and 'Bull-Bear Market Cycle Signals' show that we are still in a bullish phase, but far from reaching a euphoric peak. The Pi Cycle Top and 4-Year Moving Average model predict potential cycle peaks between $145,000 and $189,000. From a historical perspective, the gradually decreasing returns are easing the explosive growth we saw in previous Bitcoin cycles.
Pi Cycle Top indicator (Source: Bitfinex)
According to CoinGlass, the Pi Cycle Top indicator can be used to indicate when the market is overheating. Historically, when the short-term moving average (the 111-day moving average shown above) moves upward and crosses the 350DMA x 2, the Bitcoin price is usually in an overheated stage.
Bitfinex analysts believe that any price correction in 2025 will be relatively mild, thanks to the influx of institutional capital. Additionally, based on past historical cycles, the year following a halving typically sees the strongest upward momentum. Analysts also estimate that Bitcoin will reach at least $145,000 as a cycle target price by mid-2025, 'potentially extending to $200,000 under favorable conditions.'
However, the report suggests that Bitcoin may experience volatility in the first quarter of 2025 and advises investors to be wary of signs of overbuying when Bitcoin approaches the cycle top.
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