Next week, Western countries will welcome the most important holiday of the year, Christmas. How will the future trend of Bitcoin develop? (Background: Is there a Thanksgiving curse for Bitcoin? Statistics show that in the past ten years, the probability of a price drop is as high as 70%) (Background Information: What caused the Bitcoin surge? The Bank of Japan is rumored to not raise interest rates in December! The yen has depreciated to a three-week low) After reaching a historic high of $106,660 yesterday, Bitcoin made another move today (17th), with BTC peaking at $107,796, setting a new historical high. At the time of writing, it has slightly corrected to $106,527, with a 24-hour increase of 1.03%. It is worth noting that next week, Western countries will usher in the most important Christmas holiday of the year (December 25). Some are concerned that with the arrival of Christmas, traders may sell Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to cash out, in order to reduce trading and raise funds to celebrate the holiday, which could affect the performance of cryptocurrencies. Let’s look at historical data from the past decade to see whether Christmas is good or bad for Bitcoin prices? Performance of Bitcoin during Christmas over the past ten years According to Coinglass data, in the past 10 years (2014 - 2023), Bitcoin experienced price drops during 6 out of 10 Christmases, with the largest drop occurring in 2018 at 5.58%. In the 4 instances of price increases, the largest increase was in 2020 at 4.11%. Although historical data shows that there is a lower probability of significant fluctuations in Bitcoin prices during Christmas, analyzing the past decade’s performance in December reveals a 50% chance of price increases. The smallest increase occurred in 2015 at 13.83%, while the largest increase reached 46.92%. Among the 5 instances of price drops, the largest drop was 18.9% in 2021, with the smallest being 3.59% in 2022. Overall, the chances of an increase or decrease in December are roughly equal, but when there is an increase, it usually has double-digit growth. Whether BTC can continue to rise in the last two weeks of this year remains to be seen. QCP Capital: The Fed’s interest rate decision has little impact on Bitcoin trends Regarding Bitcoin reaching a new historical high, the crypto investment firm QCP Capital also analyzed in a post yesterday on its official Telegram channel, stating that the current market is mainly driven by sentiment. With MicroStrategy's stock being included in the Nasdaq 100 index, it suggests that more funds may flow from the US stock market to Bitcoin, a positive factor supporting the rise in Bitcoin prices. Conversely, before Christmas arrives, we will also witness the last interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. The market generally believes that the Fed will continue to lower interest rates by 25 basis points. QCP Capital commented on this, stating: This week’s central bank meeting seems to have little impact on the cryptocurrency market, as BTC is currently primarily driven by market sentiment. Although the possibility is low, if the Fed and Chairman Powell take an extremely dovish stance, Bitcoin may rise further. Glassnode: Bitcoin's next target is $108,000 Additionally, Glassnode co-founder @Negentropic stated on Twitter yesterday that Bitcoin has remained above $100,000 for two consecutive weeks, and the next target will be between $108,000 and $110,000. However, if Bitcoin experiences a correction, $102,000 will be a key support level and a golden entry point for the next wave of increases. Bitcoin Breakout: New ATH! #BTC closes its 2nd consecutive week above $100k, smashing through $102k resistance (now support) and hitting $104k. Target: $108k-$110k. A $102k retest this week could be a golden entry before the next leg up! #Crypto #ATH https://t.co/Ddkkz2ftq9 pic.twitter.com/vb8JomcYy9 — 𝗡𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗰 (@Negentropic_) December 16, 2024 Related Reports: Explosion! Bitcoin breaks through $106,600, analysts are optimistic: Trump’s presidency could push it to $120,000. (Opinion) The last 'grassroots' cycle of BTC: The theory of value and price of Bitcoin. Will Bitcoin be cracked in two years? The SPAC king warns that 'Google's quantum chip' could annihilate SHA-256; Adam Back criticizes and scoffs, "Is there a Christmas market for Bitcoin? Analyzing the past 10 years of data tells you" This article was first published on BlockTempo (BlockTempo - the most influential blockchain news media).

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