This article will introduce 12 cycle determination tools and exit indicators to help investors identify market trends and potential exit opportunities, capturing the peak of a bull market. This article is based on a piece written by analyst Ostium, organized and translated by PANews. (Background: Bitfinex: Bitcoin may reach the bull market peak in Q3-Q4 2025, looking at $145,000 to $189,000) (Supplementary background: Bull Market Gold Rush: 6 Trading Rules to Increase Trading Success Rate) This article will introduce 12 cycle determination tools and exit indicators, most of which are relatively unknown. Here are the details: PI Cycle The PI cycle top indicator has successfully captured the tops of the last three cycles. The indicator uses a 111-day moving average (dMA) and a 2x 350 dMA price. In the past three cycles, when the 111 dMA broke above the 2x 350 dMA, it marked the top of the BTC/USD cycle. It is called the PI cycle top because 350/111 = 3.153, which is not far from 3.142. It is expected that this time may be different, as the anticipated crossover price will exceed $400,000 (which is difficult to achieve), but one can expect a final excitement phase after Bitcoin reaches the 2x 350 dMA level (currently around $126,000). MVRV Z Score Another on-chain indicator that has been emphasized before is the MVRV Z-Score, which is a tool for assessing extreme bubble periods. The MVRV Z-Score can help identify positions where Bitcoin may be overvalued or undervalued to an extreme degree relative to its fair value. This indicator uses Bitcoin's market value (price x circulating supply) and realized value (the average price of the last movement of each Bitcoin x circulating supply), and calculates the Z-Score between them to identify extremes. Historically, the BTC/USD has formed cycle highs within weeks after this ratio peaks. It is expected that this round of the cycle will reach at least 4; if it exceeds this level, one can begin to explore other exit indicators. A more interesting version of this indicator, which is relatively unknown, is the whale MVRV (holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC), as shown in the diagram: Source VAPLI and Decay Oscillator Volatility Adjusted Power Law Index (VAPLI) is based on the concept of power law and is used to measure the deviation of Bitcoin's price from the fitted power law curve, adjusted for volatility to account for changes in market structure over time. Looking at the chart below, it can be seen that the period when this index pushed toward 100 and then turned and began to decline coincides with the cycle top. Currently, this number has once again broken through 100. Source Similar to the volatility-adjusted power law, the decay oscillator below was modeled by Sminston With. The peaks of this oscillator have almost locked in the tops of the previous few cycles within days, but it is obviously not possible to determine in real-time where the peak will be reached: however, when this indicator exceeds 90%, and then reviewing other exit signals, the likelihood of approaching your desired exit point reaches 95%. Currently, this indicator is still below 60%, indicating that this market cycle is still in the upward phase: Mayer Multiple The Mayer Multiple is a multiple of the price over the 200 dMA. While the chart above is helpful, normalizing it is actually more useful, considering that volatility decreases over time. The chart below shows the adjusted Mayer Multiple indicator. It is currently far from historical highs relative to the 200 dMA; in fact, it has not even returned to the March 2024 high. Looking forward to surpassing the March 2024 high and moving towards the $0.9 region: Source NUPL NUPL, or net unrealized profit/loss, uses market value and realized value (as emphasized in the MVRV Z Score section above), subtracting realized value from market value. Then it is divided by market value, with the formula: (Market Value – Realized Market Value) / Market Value. This chart provides an intuitive understanding of market sentiment and the current phase of the market cycle. Historically, when approaching or exceeding 75%, the cycle top is not far off. Terminal Price The Terminal Price is a tool established by analyst Checkmate. To calculate this indicator, the number of days Bitcoin has been burned is divided by the existing Bitcoin supply and its circulating time. This is seen as the 'transfer price,' and the transfer price is multiplied by 21. The usage is quite simple, as a reference area, hoping to ensure positions are proportionately adjusted – currently, its price is $180,000. This does not mean waiting until $180,000 to exit any long positions, but rather to be used in conjunction with all other exit indicators. 4-Year MA Multiple The 4-Year MA Multiple is very simple: draw a 4-year moving average and calculate the extent to which the price deviates from that multiple. Historically, peaks have exceeded 4.5 times the 4-Year MA, but when this multiple approaches 4, one needs to begin paying attention to all other exit indicators: 22-Day RSI The 22-Day RSI indicator is very useful, and of course, the 2-week or monthly RSI can also be used, but the 22-day is particularly clear for major inflection points. In fact, every time the 22-Day RSI reaches a peak above 90, the cycle peak forms within the following 22 days (excluding the peak on November 21). One can refer to BTC's 22-Day RSI, and when this indicator is above 90, it is possible to exit positions within the following 3-6 weeks: Coinbase/Phantom/Moonshot App Rankings Currently, there is a lot of supporting evidence related to the cryptocurrency lifecycle, and the Coinbase App Store ranking first in 'All Apps' is a clear signal indicating that we are at the peak time of the cycle. Phantom and Moonshot can serve as potential signals. Phantom ranking first among all apps would be an unequivocal exit indicator. Typically, the Coinbase App Store ranking trend peaks and troughs in the last few months of the cycle, and when it ranks first among all apps, a major top often appears within less than 4 weeks. This indicator also needs to be used in conjunction with other indicators. AppFigures can be used for real-time tracking, or one can follow bots like Coinbase App Store rankings for daily updates. Bitcoindata21 also provides regular updates with sentiment analysis. Search Trends Google search trends can be used to determine market sentiment and understand what the public is interested in at any given moment, but the keywords most people search for are very superficial, such as 'Bitcoin'...

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