As the end of 2024 approaches, the financial markets are gathering profound changing trends at several key points. According to Goldman Sachs' latest analysis report, the Federal Reserve's rate cut in December 2024 is almost a certainty, and the market generally expects a continuation of 25 basis points rate cuts in January and March 2025. Although current traders' expectations for a December rate cut are close to 97%, the recent strong performance of U.S. economic data increases the possibility of pausing rate cuts in early 2025. Therefore, while the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the rate-cutting process in the short term, the adjustment pace in the later stages still carries uncertainties.
The Federal Reserve's rate cuts and market expectations
Goldman's rate cut forecast brings a relatively optimistic expectation to the market. The Federal Reserve's continuous rate cuts help alleviate inflationary pressures from an overheated economy and stimulate market demand, especially in the U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets. The implementation of such policies will inevitably affect market liquidity and asset price trends. From market feedback, the strengthening of rate cut expectations not only boosts the confidence of stock market investors but also drives up the prices of digital assets like Bitcoin.
According to reports, traders believe there is a 97% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut during the meeting on December 17-18. However, the attitude of Federal Reserve officials has become more cautious, indicating that the pace of rate cuts may slow down, especially after strong economic data from the U.S. in November, which increases the risk of pausing rate cuts. If the Federal Reserve's hawkish remarks align with economic data, the market's expectations for rate cuts may adjust.
The long-term upward momentum of Bitcoin
Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, the cryptocurrency market is also welcoming strong upward momentum. Reports indicate that Bitcoin has set the longest consecutive weekly increase since 2021 over the past seven weeks. This surge is not only influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy but is also closely related to Trump's support for digital assets during the election period. As Trump further promotes the U.S. as a dominant force in the global cryptocurrency industry, the demand from institutional investors for cryptocurrency products has also significantly increased.
It is worth noting that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has attracted a net inflow of $12.2 billion in recent times, while the Ethereum ETF has also seen an influx of $2.8 billion. This data proves the confidence of institutional investors in crypto assets, and they remain optimistic about long-term returns even in the face of market uncertainties. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has released Bitcoin Tracker information for the sixth consecutive week, and his company is expected to further increase its Bitcoin holdings. This series of actions further indicates that Bitcoin is not just a speculative asset but is gradually becoming an important part of institutional capital allocation.
El Salvador's Bitcoin profits attract attention
From a more macro perspective, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele recently released a screenshot of Bitcoin asset returns, reigniting the market's enthusiasm for Bitcoin's long-term value. According to the disclosed information, El Salvador's total Bitcoin investment amounts to $270 million, currently yielding a floating profit of approximately $362 million, with a return rate of 133.95%. This level of profit demonstrates that El Salvador's strategic positioning in the Bitcoin market has been successful, and this positioning will undoubtedly influence investment decisions by other countries or institutions.
According to Token Unlocks data, this week (December 16 to December 22, Beijing time) tokens such as ARB, APE, QAI will see significant unlocks, including:
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock approximately 92.65 million tokens at 9 PM on December 16, accounting for 2.26% of the current circulation, worth about $91.4 million;
ApeCoin (APE) will unlock approximately 15.6 million tokens at 8:30 PM on December 17, accounting for 2.16% of the current circulation, worth about $24 million;
QuantixAI (QAI) will unlock approximately 232,000 tokens at 8 AM on December 18, accounting for 5.16% of the current circulation, worth about $22 million;
Cardano (ADA) will unlock approximately 18.53 million tokens at 8 AM on December 16, accounting for 0.05% of the current circulation, worth about $20.1 million;
Pixels (PIXEL) will unlock approximately 54.38 million tokens at 6 PM on December 19, accounting for 7.05% of the current circulation, worth about $12.1 million;
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens at 3 PM on December 18, accounting for 0.44% of the current circulation, worth about $14.7 million;
Echelon Prime (PRIME) will unlock approximately 750,000 tokens at 8 AM on December 17, accounting for 1.46% of the current circulation, worth about $10.5 million;
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) will unlock approximately 1.29 million tokens at 3 AM on December 18, accounting for 0.61% of the current circulation, worth about $6.2 million.
BTC: Yesterday, Bitcoin closed with a 'small bullish line', continuing to set new historical highs! The weekly level recorded a 'hanging man' line, reflecting that the market's upward momentum has weakened somewhat, and supply pressure is gradually surfacing, indicating a period of fluctuation or correction in the short term.
In summary, although Bitcoin has broken new highs in the short term, there is a risk of a 'false breakout' in this round of increase, as the market has not yet undergone sufficient adjustment. In the short term, prices may retest the lower support. Without strong capital and demand intervention, it will be difficult to absorb the supply pressure. From a medium to long-term perspective, the upward trend of Bitcoin still exists, but it needs time to gradually repair the market structure, and the next strong breakout still requires momentum accumulation.
ETH: Yesterday, Ethereum closed with a 'small bullish line' and is currently above the 5-day moving average. The daily level MACD is expected to form a golden cross above the zero axis, with the subsequent trend expected to follow Bitcoin, showing an overall trend of upward fluctuation and new highs.
Altcoins: Recently, the overall performance of the altcoin market has been relatively weak, with many cryptocurrencies experiencing varying degrees of correction. This adjustment does not mean the market has ended but is rather a healthy correction. In fact, from a technical perspective, such corrections help the market eliminate bubbles and create better conditions for subsequent capital inflows.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 83 (Extreme Greed)#BTC再创新高
