Trend judgment is difficult.

Here’s a suggestion: If you really want to survive and make money in the Bitcoin market, the first step is to block out the news, such as interest rate hikes and cuts, this call and that call, who bought and supported what, block all technical analysis, such as drawing lines, MACD, volume and price, liquidation maps, etc. These things can't be said to be completely useless, but often they are only superficially useful. If you become obsessed with these, you will always be one of those who get cut. After blocking them out, look at the entire cycle's trajectory until you feel you understand it, and then go validate it.