Expert discusses hot topics:
The new week has just begun, and Bitcoin has reached another ATH in the morning, causing market sentiment to boil. However, every new high raises concerns about a pullback. In fact, this concern is more psychological; after all, it is still FOMO time in Asia. The truly concerning points will need to wait until the US stock market opens tonight to see how the market changes.
Today, the expert will briefly discuss the current market logic: After $MSTR was included in the Nasdaq 100, institutional funds have been continuously increasing positions, which undoubtedly injects more confidence into the market. Additionally, the premium of CME futures is still significantly higher than spot, indicating that large funds are much more optimistic about the future than ordinary retail investors.
If there is anything to be wary of, it should wait until after the Federal Reserve meeting on December 19, especially the dot plot for 2025—whether the rate cut expectations can exceed 2 to 4 times will significantly impact the market.
As for the pullback, there is really no need for excessive interpretation. Last week's so-called pullback ultimately didn't even last a week before being directly contradicted by a new high. The trend is the core force that drives prices; as long as the trend remains intact, a pullback is actually an opportunity for positioning.
From the current perspective, a rate cut in December has become very likely, and the rate cut itself is a clear positive. For this bull market, a brief fluctuation cannot change the overall upward structure.
Moreover, many people feel fearful of heights at 100k, but it should be understood that this is just a new starting point. Some KOLs say it will fluctuate like 73k in the first half of the year, which seems a bit like trying to catch a shadow.
The expert believes that a true bull market is fast-paced and highly volatile, and there won't be much time for hesitation. There are less than 11 months left in the halving cycle; if there is still a need to fluctuate for half a year, then the logic of the bull market does not exist.
In the short term, if there are no obvious negative factors this week, the extreme low point for Bitcoin might be around 99255, which is the position for mid-line layout last week. Even if an unexpected negative factor occurs, technically speaking, I personally believe the extreme low is no more than 95555.
On the contrary, if the rate cut is implemented, the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals, and factors like Christmas consumption boom overlap, it may further push prices higher. The most dangerous thing in a bull market is blindly shorting, especially when there is no clear top signal. If it rises to 100k and you fear a drop, a 3% decline panics you, and missing the chance leads to following the crowd in shorting.
Such a mindset will only cause you to miss more opportunities. The overall direction remains bullish, and the pullback is merely a short stop at the station. The real risk is missing the bus, not the fluctuations of the pullback.
Market analysis by the expert:
Bitcoin broke through the upper edge of the ascending triangle and reached a new high again, currently in a strong rebound state. In the overbought zone, it is recommended to take profits on part of the position, and re-enter during the pullback to accumulate gains, avoiding chasing highs!
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 104500
Second resistance level: 106700
Support level reference:
First support level: 104500
Second support level: 103400
Today's suggestion:
If the 104K~105K range stabilizes, it may form a consolidation box, increasing the probability of a rebound. If there is a pullback, one can pay attention to the 20/60/120-day moving averages and enter in batches. Avoid chasing highs; wait for stabilization after a pullback to position. The market is prone to profit-taking at high levels, so be sure to patiently wait for pullback opportunities!
12.16 Expert's segment pre-buried:
Long entry reference: 103400-103800 range, light positions, target: 105500-106700
Short entry reference: not applicable
