The current structure of Bitcoin indicates a bullish stance. I am firmly bullish to 110k this month. However, if I were to open a new position now, the average price would be slightly higher. The pullback on December 10 has cooled the bullish sentiment, but these are not reasons to avoid being bullish. It's not because the price has risen significantly that one must short; the shorting logic is not because of the rise, but rather that when encountering resistance, one should not take the risk if opportunities are slim.

The Bitcoin 100k threshold has actually stabilized in the short term. This stabilization does not mean that it won't drop below 100k again later, but rather that it cannot go below 100k in the current market without bearish information to trigger a drop.

Therefore, in the short term, it is normal to buy on dips. Don't say that now at 102k, even if it rises to 120k in Q1 next year, bulls still need to buy on dips. Buying on dips is a bearish action disguised as bullish; here, 'bearish' refers to the natural law of entering and exiting, as it can never rise in a straight line and will always have some minor pullbacks.

Recently, many fans have asked whether Bitcoin will correct or rise before and after Christmas.

Christmas? Christmas disaster? "! ! !"

Another side believes that from Christmas to New Year's Day is the Western New Year, during which everyone will cash out for the holiday.

One side believes that Christmas and New Year's Day are after the third interest rate cut and are major holidays that require market rises to create a festive atmosphere.

For veteran traders, these two points are the most routine considerations. What do you think? Discuss the logical reasoning.

(1) Those who hold the first viewpoint

This is purely speculating on the market from the perspective of the market makers. I think you need to consider these questions:

① Is it true that the cryptocurrency market will definitely be sluggish with no trading from Christmas to New Year's Day in the West?

② How much impact does retail investors cashing out for the New Year have on the market?

③ In the past few years, market uptrends from Christmas to New Year's Day have been common; how do you explain that?

④ The main force sometimes does not rest on Sundays while driving the market up; do you know that?

(2) Those who hold the second viewpoint are the ones who correctly perceive the current market situation.

Simplicity is key; do not overly speculate on the market makers' intentions. A bull market is simple: it will only start to pull back after all the positive news has been released.

December 18 is the last interest rate cut of the year, which will release a roadmap for next year's interest rate cuts in advance. This positive expectation has an inertia effect. In the medium term, there won't be any significant adjustments until at least January 20, before Trump is officially inaugurated.

The week before and after China's Spring Festival has historically been a significant trading period. Therefore, overall, there is not much adjustment demand from December to February.

The only thing bulls need to focus on is the expectation of interest rate hikes in Japan. As far as I know, the Bank of Japan is considering delaying interest rate hikes at the next monetary policy meeting. This bearish expectation has essentially been ruled out within this month. The current BTC market is performing healthily, and the 4-hour level has not deteriorated. If you speculate that there will be a crash and that it will happen after January 10, that is a bit ridiculous. The logic in a bull market differs from that in a small bull market; buying on dips does not require hesitation.

Only buying on dips is the winning strategy in a bull market, the only secret to maximizing profits.

That's all for today. During a bull market phase, many people hope for a free exchange. If you really can't manage in the crypto space, don't force yourself; come to me for guidance, understand the latest information, strategize, embrace the bull market, increase your win rate, and say goodbye to being trapped at high positions.