Looking back a few years ago, it seemed like a fantasy that Bitcoin would rise to $100,000, but it did. Now, investors are eyeing a new target of $200,000.

Although I have predicted that Bitcoin will break $100,000 in 2024, to be honest, no one knows what the future will be like. The market looks quite rational, but in fact it often does not follow the routine, especially in the cryptocurrency market, where anything can happen.

But today we are not here to talk about the reliability of predictions. Although predicting the price of Bitcoin is pure guesswork, it is quite interesting. To study whether Bitcoin will rise in 2025, we still have to look at a few key points.

Bitcoin has a pretty accurate four-year cycle, and judging from the past 16 years, 2025 seems to be the year for another climax. This cycle is generally like this: first there is a bear market, like in 2022, and die-hard fans take the opportunity to buy at low prices. Then it slowly picks up in 2023, and the momentum gradually increases. In 2024, when the halving occurs, fewer Bitcoins are issued and more scarce, so the price rises rapidly. Finally, in 2025, after the halving, Bitcoin becomes popular again, new investors flock to it, and the price often soars.

The performance of Bitcoin in 2024 is exactly the same as in the previous cycles, climbing up from the bottom and rising sharply after the halving. Looking at this pattern, it seems that 2025 will also follow this path. Of course, historical patterns may not always be correct, but at least there is a reference, unless new circumstances arise.

Bitcoin has always seen the strongest growth after the halving, with an average increase of more than 400%. If history repeats itself, starting from $100,000, Bitcoin will be worth $500,000 by the end of 2025. But then again, it is a bit difficult to make Bitcoin rise so wildly. Now the market value of Bitcoin is $2 trillion, and if you want it to rise by 5%, you have to invest a lot more money than before.

So the rise of Bitcoin in each cycle is not as strong as the previous one. The first cycle was the strongest, and the subsequent cycles became weaker and weaker. No one knows exactly how much weaker it is, but we can roughly guess. So, starting from the trough in November 2022, Bitcoin will probably rise to $210,000 in 2025.

There is also a new thing, the spot Bitcoin ETF, which was just approved in January 2024, allowing investors to more easily add Bitcoin to pension funds, hedge funds and 401(k) plans. The demand for this ETF is terrifying. It has been established for less than a year and it is very popular. The more people buy the Bitcoin ETF, the faster the price of Bitcoin will rise. This ETF may really help Bitcoin reach $210,000.

From this perspective, Bitcoin is likely to be popular again in 2025. The cyclical law is there, and the price will rise. The new ETF has made the demand even stronger. Unlike before, now institutional funds are coming in, Bitcoin may hit a new high in 2025, and the rate of return may not decline as before.

Of course, predicting the price of Bitcoin is pure guesswork. But looking at historical patterns and institutional demand, it is quite possible that Bitcoin will break $200,000 by 2025. But then again, it all depends on how time goes.

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