ING stated in its 2025 outlook that incoming U.S. President Trump’s commitment to impose tariffs on trade partners, along with potential retaliatory actions, could disrupt markets including oil, metals, and agriculture. Meanwhile, traders are also paying attention to China's stimulus measures.

Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey stated in the report: "We expect that many parts of the commodity market will gradually decline by 2025, as the supply-demand balance is relatively loose, and the possibility of escalating trade tensions poses a downside risk, while the market is waiting to see if and when China's support measures will impact the commodity market."

While Trump is unlikely to have a significant impact on U.S. oil production, crude oil prices are expected to be pressured by strong supply growth from non-OPEC countries. ING expects the average price of Brent crude oil to decline to $71 per barrel next year, down from the current price of about $74.

At the same time, new U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities may boost domestic demand and prices in the U.S., while making it easier for Europe to offset Russian supplies. Assuming a normal winter, this could lead to a decrease in natural gas prices in the region.

ING stated that due to geopolitical concerns, gold will continue to set records this year, with the average price expected to rise from the current level of about $2,713 per ounce to $2,760 by 2025. Most buying will come from central banks looking to diversify their foreign exchange reserves, while increasing trade and geopolitical friction may enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

The outlook for industrial metals is more uncertain, with changes in trade policies, potential shifts in Biden’s climate laws, and demand from China likely to play a role. ING expects the average price of copper in 2025 to be $8,900 per ton, down from the current level of over $9,200. Grains are likely to be a major target in any disputes, and concerns about weather continue to put pressure on soft commodities, with cocoa and coffee prices expected to fluctuate further next year.

Article reposted from: Jin Shi Data