1. Approximately 1.91 million coins in the range of 60000-68000;
2. Approximately 1.35 million coins in the range of 90000-100000;
3. The probability of falling below 87000~91000 in the short term is 30%; the probability of staying above this range is 70%;
4. The probability of breaking through 100000~105000 in the short term is 40%.
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Important News Aspects
Economic News
1. Non-Farm Data: 227,000 new jobs added in November, higher than the expected 200,000, and the previous value was revised from 12,000 to 36,000.
2. Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate in November was 4.2%, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value of 4.10%.
3. Rate Cut Expectations: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 85%, up from 67% before the report was released.
4. CPI and PPI Expectations: Next week's CPI and PPI data may be key evidence for the Federal Reserve's rate cut in December, with weak core inflation growth expected, leading to a higher possibility of a rate cut.
5. Federal Reserve Dynamics: Bostic stated that there is no conclusion for the December meeting yet, and future data is crucial. Waller expressed support for a rate cut in December, while Daly believes that policy adjustments should continue to lower interest rates.
6. Stock Market Expectations: HSBC expects the S&P 500 index to target 6700 points by the end of 2025 (currently 6089 points).
7. Gold Expectations: JPMorgan predicts that gold will rise to $3000 per ounce next year, with an average price of $2950 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025 (currently $2636 per ounce).
8. Trump's Influence: The market reacted positively to Trump's high-level appointments, including appointing Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary and Paul Atkins as SEC Director.
9. Long-term Capital Flow: Deutsche Bank strategist Parag Thatte expects long-term trends to drive capital inflows, boosting U.S. stocks next year.
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Cryptocurrency Ecosystem News
1. White House Appointment: Trump appointed David Sacks, co-founder of PayPal, to oversee artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency affairs, and he will formulate government policies for the AI and cryptocurrency sectors.
2. Impact of Cryptocurrency Policy: David Sacks may help push for the relaxation of regulations in the cryptocurrency industry, providing advocates with direct access to the White House and acting as a liaison between Trump, Congress, and relevant federal agencies.
3. Market Dynamics: Mizuho Securities strategist Shoki Omori stated that other cryptocurrencies need to catch up to drive the overall market further upward, and altcoins may have opportunities.
4. (Financial Times) Apology: On December 5, 2024, the (Financial Times) publicly apologized for 14 years of negative reporting on cryptocurrencies, prompting readers to reconsider their long-term skeptical stance after BTC broke through $100,000.
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Short-term Observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions and assess the likelihood of events occurring under specific circumstances.
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