Daily sharing

Yesterday, the big coin surged to 100,000, peaking around 104,000. The overall movement is an extension of the 4-hour level rise. Yesterday, I actually considered the situation of a spike, so I made a reduction decision at the first moment. The long positions from yesterday all took profits last night. Of course, I didn’t consider shorting because I’m not keen on shorting in a bull market.

As expected, this morning saw the anticipated spike, reaching around 90000. Those trading spot might not feel much, especially with altcoins, which seem not to have dropped much, but those in contracts have already staged a thrilling drama.

As the big coin surged to 100,000 and then fell back, this indicates that last night's surge failed, and in the short term, a 4-hour level pullback is expected. This 4-hour pullback is anticipated to at least reach around 90000, and if the strength is substantial, it might reach around 87000.

Currently, Bitcoin has dropped, while other coins seem not to have dropped much or the decline is not significant. Does this mean that other coins will continue to rise? I personally believe that the 4-hour pullback of the big coin is normally 1~2 weeks. During this time frame, most coins will definitely experience a wave of washout actions.

So I personally believe that there is no need to rush to buy back the portion that was reduced. Of course, not everything will drop, and some coins will still see upward movements. The recent rise in November mostly avoided some new coins, causing those holding new coins to miss the upward movement of old coins. Perhaps there will be certain opportunities for new coins to catch up later.

BTC medium to long term

Weekly level:

Weekly level, currently the big coin is running the third wave of weekly level rise. If this weekly rise goes quickly, it should end by mid-next year; if slower, it might end by the end of next year. The overall target for the weekly level is temporarily seen at the 150,000~200,000 range. As for where it will ultimately rise to before starting to drop, it is currently unknown; we will see where the market goes.

Daily level:

Daily level, currently the first wave of daily level rise in the weekly rise. This daily rise has not ended, and the current expected pullback is merely a 4-hour level pullback within the daily rise; there is no need to worry about the overall direction. The current target for the daily rise is still focused on around 120,000, and if it breaks through, we will continue to look at higher levels.

This daily rise is expected to continue until the end of December or mid-January, after which a daily level pullback may occur. As long as the pullback stays above 74000, the overall upward trend will not change. The time here is just an estimate of normal structural time; if a sustained daily extension occurs, then the daily rise may extend to March or April next year. We'll have to see as it develops.

4H:

4-hour level, the surge past 100,000 yesterday was actually an extension of the previous 4-hour level rise. The recent 10 days of oscillation pullback has not formed an effective 4-hour level pullback. However, the current situation looks like it should genuinely begin a 4-hour level pullback. This pullback is expected to last 1~2 weeks, with the first target below at around 90000 and the second target at around 87000.

BTC short term

Due to the fast changes in the market, the article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, and this is just for reference.

1H:

The big coin broke through the central oscillation range yesterday but has now fallen back again. Additionally, it has not formed an effective 4-hour level pullback previously. Therefore, it is judged that it is very likely to execute a real 4-hour level pullback. Currently, the position of the spot spike is 90500, and this position will likely be filled again, meaning it will also fall back to around 90000.

Currently judging that this is the first 1-hour level decline in the 4-hour level pullback here, the target continues to focus on around 90000~91000. Then there will be the second 1-hour pullback and the third 1-hour level decline.

15M:

15-minute level, currently still running the fourth 15-minute level rebound. As long as this rebound does not break through 103000 again, it will likely pull back to around 90500. Currently, it is expected that there will be a consolidation around a 15-minute central point, possibly consolidating for about a day, and then a decline will occur.

ETH

Ethereum is still quite strong in the short term, and there is still a certain probability of pushing up to around 4000. After this surge, it will then begin a 4-hour level pullback. Alternatively, if it can't rise, it can directly start a 4-hour level pullback as well. The specific situation needs to be observed further until tomorrow.

Many altcoins did not drop in tandem or the decline was not significant, which actually has a subtle relationship with Ethereum's strength. However, it is expected that Ethereum's 4-hour level rebound is also about done, in a potential divergence phase. Unless Ethereum breaks through 4250 directly, it may still need to undergo a phased pullback.

Trend direction

Weekly level: direction is up, currently running a new wave of weekly level rise, with an overall target above 150,000.

Daily level: direction is up, with the daily level rise expected to reach around 120,000.

4-hour level: the direction is down. It is very likely that the 4-hour level rebound has ended here, and in the near term, we still need to look for a pullback.

1-hour level: direction is down, currently running a 1-hour level decline, expected to still pull back to around 90000.

15-minute level: direction is up or consolidating, looking at the 15-minute level rebound in the short term. As long as it does not break through 103000, it may still pull back again or first consolidate and then pull back.