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December 4 Bitcoin and Ethereum midday operational thoughts
Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin in the Korean market experienced severe volatility, plunging by as much as $60,000. This phenomenon may have been triggered by market panic due to political uncertainties in South Korea, technical problems with the Upbit trading platform, and possible cascading liquidations. This event sparked discussions on whether Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset or a risk asset. Although the volatility of Bitcoin is similar to that of risk assets, its circulation ability globally also endows it with safe-haven attributes. However, the behavior of Korean investors choosing to sell Bitcoin amid political turmoil is perplexing and may relate to their demand for converting won to dollars. Nevertheless, Bitcoin's acceptance in international events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrates its safe-haven capability. Although the flash crash in the Korean market caused panic, it rebounded quickly, showing market resilience. The relatively minor global market reaction is attributed to the difficulty of arbitrage in won trading pairs, the transience of the flash crash, and the relatively small trading volume in the Korean market. This event once again proves that opportunities and risks always coexist in the cryptocurrency market.
1. Market Review
On December 3, the market for Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced certain fluctuations. The long position strategy of 9.45 provided in the midday analysis, as well as the long position strategy for Ethereum at 3540/3580, was verified by the market. The evening's short position strategy at the current price of 9.54 successfully dropped to the target point, gaining 1500 points. Subsequently, the long positions at 9.45/3540 analyzed in the midday also successfully rebounded to 9.66/3700, with profits exceeding 3000 points. For investors following the strategy, there is no doubt that there were gains. However, the current short-term market shows an upward rebound trend, and investors need to operate with greater caution.
2. Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
From the daily chart, Bitcoin formed a doji with a lower shadow yesterday, closing above the 10-day moving average (MA10), indicating that the price has not completely lost the 5/10-day moving averages. On the 4-hour chart, it held after retracing to the 120-day moving average (MA120) yesterday, and the price has once again reached the 30-day moving average (MA30) at the 9.65 resistance level. Investors need to pay attention to whether today’s price can stabilize above 9.65. On the 1-hour level, watch for the breakthrough and retest of the 256-day moving average (MA256) at 9.6; if the short-term needs to return to a bullish trend, it must stabilize in the price range of 9.6-9.65; otherwise, it will continue to oscillate.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
The daily chart of Ethereum shows that it pierced the 10-day moving average (MA10) yesterday but did not break it. Today's price slightly rebounded, recovering the daily MA5/10 moving averages. On the 4-hour level, several consecutive red K-lines have once again stood above the 30-day moving average (MA30), with resistance referenced at the previous high point of 3730.
3. Midday operational thoughts (Written at: 15:45)
Bitcoin (BTC) operational thoughts
Long position strategy: Open a light long position near 9.58/9.53, aiming for above 9.7.
Short position strategy: Open a light short position at 9.8/9.75, aiming for around 9.6.
Ethereum (ETH) operational thoughts
Long position strategy: Open a light long position near 3620/3580, aiming for 3700/3750.
Short position strategy: Follow Bitcoin for short-term trades.
4. Mid to long-term trend analysis
Mid to long-term trend of Bitcoin: As long as Bitcoin does not fall below the short-term support at 9.45, it is still treated as bullish. Although there are disagreements in the short-term, it is still treated as oscillating slightly bullish until key support is lost.
Mid to long-term trend of Ethereum: Ethereum has held the support area mentioned yesterday below 3550, strengthening again in the short term. However, the momentum of the upward correction is slightly slow; in the short term, it is still treated as bullish on a wave basis.
5. Market Sentiment and Risk Management
In the current market environment, investors need to remain cautious and closely monitor changes in market sentiment. Due to the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market, investors should reasonably allocate funds and avoid excessive concentration of investments to reduce risks. Additionally, setting stop-loss points is an important part of risk management, helping investors exit in a timely manner during unfavorable market conditions to minimize losses.
6. Conclusion
In summary, the short-term market for Bitcoin and Ethereum shows an upward rebound trend. Investors should combine technical analysis during operations and pay attention to key support and resistance levels. Reasonable capital management and risk control are key to successful investment. In the mid to long-term trend, both Bitcoin and Ethereum show certain support, but market sentiment and macroeconomic factors may still impact prices, so investors should remain vigilant and flexibly adjust their operational strategies.
