In the past few days, the price of BTC was constrained by 96,000 and once fell back to the support of 92,000. At the same time, the ratio of long and short positions was high, reaching a maximum of 2.45, and the market risk aversion was relatively strong. In addition, due to the New Year's Day holiday, many regional/national stock markets were closed, resulting in relatively insufficient liquidity in the crypto market. At present, the market needs news stimulation, and the highlight is the Micro Strategy increase in holdings on Monday night and the non-agricultural data on Friday night.
According to AICoin (aicoin.com) data, the current Fear & Greed Index is close to the extreme greed level, at 74, but Coinbase BTC continues to have a negative premium, and the main force of the US market has not yet exerted its strength. However, as Trump's presidency approaches, the market is likely to have another wave of speculation, and the next two weeks will be very important.
Data that needs attention:
1. Coinbase BTC Premium
As of press time, it is still a negative premium, but it has reached its highest point in nearly a week. If the positive premium is restored, it means that the demand in the US market will begin to increase and the main force will buy. At that time, the rise of BTC will be more stable.
2. CME Gap
Pay attention to the gap on Monday: gap up, bullish; gap down, bearish. However, the gap is not 100% filled, it is mainly used as a basis for support and pressure.
3. ETF Data
The total asset size of the US Bitcoin spot ETF has reached 110 billion US dollars, with a net inflow of nearly 35 billion US dollars. However, IBIT, the previous largest inflow, has outflowed 393 million US dollars in the last three trading days. At the same time, Grayscale continues to sell GBTC, and the inflows of other ETF funds have shrunk significantly compared with October and November. If the purchasing power is restored in the future, it can be regarded as a signal of increased confidence in US institutions.
The relationship between US spot BTC ETF fund flows and Bitcoin: net inflow, bullish; net outflow, bearish.
ETF data tracking: https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/web3-etf/us-btc?lang=cn
4. ETH/BTC exchange rate
Ethereum will usher in the Pectra upgrade in the first quarter of this year, and the market will definitely hype it up. At present, some KOLs have bullish expectations of $10,000. Pay attention to ETH/BTC, which forms a downward channel at the weekly level, but is supported by the lower track of BOLL. It is expected to make a W bottom and rebound to 0.04574. If the ETH/BTC exchange rate picks up, ETH will be strong.
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