Futures Early Peak - Audio Version

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Macroeconomic news

1. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced the Chinese warehousing index for November on December 3. Due to significant positive changes in economic operations recently, along with the impact of e-commerce promotional activities, warehousing demand has increased significantly, and business activities have become notably active, leading to the Chinese warehousing index returning to the expansion range. The Chinese warehousing index for November is 52.4%, a substantial increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month.

2. The Ministry of Commerce announced that, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China and other laws and regulations, in order to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international non-proliferation obligations, it has decided to strengthen export controls on related dual-use items to the United States. The relevant matters are announced as follows: 1. The export of dual-use items to U.S. military users or for military purposes is prohibited. 2. In principle, no licenses will be granted for the export of gallium, germanium, antimony, and related dual-use items to the United States; for graphite dual-use items exported to the United States, stricter end-user and end-use reviews will be implemented.

3. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that we are currently in a state of ceasefire with Hezbollah, not an end to conflict. We will enforce the ceasefire agreement with an iron fist and take action against any violations of the ceasefire agreement, regardless of whether they are minor or serious.

4. South Korea's political turmoil intensifies as President Yoon Suk-yeol declares 'emergency martial law' late at night, the first since 1980. Yoon states that the opposition party is manipulating the National Assembly and disrupting the country, indicating that he will purge 'anti-state forces' within South Korea. The military parachuted into the National Assembly in an attempt to arrest members; the ruling party leader denounced this action as unconstitutional, while the opposition party called for Yoon's resignation. At 5 a.m. local time, the martial law order was officially lifted after just six hours. It is reported that the U.S. was not informed of these matters in advance. Analysts say the trigger for this event was the opposition party's push for a series of legislation targeting the president's wife and impeachment of public officials such as the prosecutor.

Global futures market fluctuations

1. Domestic commodity futures closed overnight, with PVC down 1.39%, No. 20 rubber up 1.7%, crude oil up 1.64%, and rubber up 1.41%. The black series showed mixed results, with coke down 1.31% and coking coal down 1.67%. Agricultural products showed mixed results, with palm oil up 1.79% and soybean oil up 1.12%. Most base metals closed higher, with Shanghai nickel up 2.08%, stainless steel up 1.27%, Shanghai copper up 1.16%, and Shanghai tin up 0.6%. Shanghai gold rose 0.17%, and Shanghai silver rose 1.64%.

2. International oil prices rose across the board, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) January 2025 contract up 2.75% at $69.97 per barrel. The Brent February 2025 contract rose 2.52% to $73.64 per barrel.

3. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.28% at $2,666 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up 2.11% at $31.515 per ounce.

4. London base metals rose collectively, with LME copper up 1.42% at $9,120.5 per ton, LME zinc up 0.73% at $3,099 per ton, LME nickel up 2.56% at $16,095 per ton, LME aluminum up 0.66% at $2,607 per ton, LME tin up 0.78% at $28,795 per ton, and LME lead up 0.39% at $2,084 per ton.

5. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures main contracts closed mixed, with soybean futures up 0.63% at 991.5 cents per bushel; corn futures down 0.06% at 432.25 cents per bushel; wheat futures up 0.18% at 548.25 cents per bushel.

Black series hot news

1. On December 3, Mysteel reported that China's total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 156.5738 million tons, a decrease of 1.396 million tons from the previous week. By region, except for inventory declines in North China and East China, inventories at ports in other regions have shown slight rebounds compared to last week. In North China, some ports in the region experienced reduced unloading efficiency due to strong winds, resulting in a more noticeable reduction in port inventories, although the amount of iron ore waiting to be unloaded in the region has increased compared to the previous week.

2. Mysteel satellite data indicates that from November 25 to December 1, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 11.861 million tons, an increase of 91,000 tons from the previous month, with inventories increasing slightly for two consecutive periods. The current absolute inventory is slightly above the average value since the fourth quarter.

3. According to the latest data from the Port of Brisbane Pty Ltd (PBPL) in Australia, coal exports from the Port of Brisbane in Queensland reached 381,300 tons in October 2024, a month-on-month increase of 40.3% and a year-on-year increase of 17.71%. The cumulative coal export volume from January to October was 3.1982 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 64.69%.

4. Vale expects its iron ore production in 2025 to be between 325 million and 335 million tons; it is expected that the iron ore production for this fiscal year will reach 328 million tons.

Agricultural product hot news

1. According to monitoring by the National Grain and Oil Information Center, on November 29, the commercial inventory of imported soybeans at major oil mills nationwide was 5.47 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 150,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 650,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 430,000 tons, 1.21 million tons higher than the average of the past three years. The soybean meal inventory at major oil mills was 850,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 60,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 140,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 30,000 tons, 290,000 tons higher than the average of the past three years.

2. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) released its quarterly production report indicating that Australia’s canola production for the 2024/2025 crop year is expected to be 5.6 million tons, up from the September forecast of 5.47 million tons, but still 8% lower than last year. This year's canola planting area and yield are both lower than last year due to dry weather in southeastern Australia. The wheat production for the 2024/2025 crop year in Australia is expected to reach 31.9 million tons, up from the September estimate of 31.83 million tons, a 23% increase from last year and 20% higher than the 10-year average.

3. A survey released by Emater-RS indicates that the soybean production in Brazil's southern state of Rio Grande do Sul is expected to reach 21.6 million tons for the 2024/2025 crop year, an increase of 18.59% compared to the 2023/2024 crop year. The soybean planting area in the state is expected to be 6,811,344 hectares, a 1.54% increase from the previous year. The yield is expected to exceed last year's by 13.17%, reaching 3,179 kilograms per hectare.

4. Five dealers stated that strong demand during the holiday period has prompted processing plants to increase their purchases of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil to replenish stocks. India's edible oil imports in November soared to the highest level in four months. Dealers estimate that palm oil imports in November increased by 0.5% compared to the previous month, reaching 850,000 tons. November soybean oil imports increased by 20% month-on-month, reaching 410,000 tons, the highest level in three months.

5. According to Wind data, as of the week ending December 3, soybean oil port inventories recorded 1.02 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the week ending November 26.

6. The sugarcane crushing pace in Maharashtra, India for the 2024/2025 crop year is accelerating. The state's council office reported that as of December 2, a total of 7.686 million tons of sugarcane have been crushed, producing 574,700 tons of sugar. The average sugar recovery rate in the state is 7.48%.

7. According to the European Commission, as of December 1, the EU's soybean imports for the 2024/25 crop year reached 5.46 million tons, an increase from 4.86 million tons in the same period last year; palm oil imports reached 1.3 million tons, compared to 1.6 million tons last year; soybean meal imports were 8.15 million tons, compared to 6.34 million tons last year.

Energy and chemical hot news

1. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on improving the pricing mechanism for refined oil pipeline transportation. Based on the characteristics of refined oil pipeline transportation, an elastic regulatory mechanism will be implemented for the cross-provincial refined oil pipeline transportation prices of the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Pipeline Group Co., Ltd., with the highest allowable income determined by the National Development and Reform Commission. The National Pipeline Group will negotiate specific cross-provincial pipeline transportation prices with users, not exceeding the highest allowable income.

2. According to Longzhong Information data, as of the week ending December 2, the total inventory of asphalt in 104 social warehouses in the country was 885,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.2%. The total inventory in 54 asphalt sample factories in the country was 617,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4.3%; the oil arrival volume at independent refineries in Shandong was 2.097 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 692,000 tons, with a growth rate of 49.3%.

3. The Rubber Authority of Thailand stated on Tuesday that flooding in the southern region could reduce this year's rubber production by 320,000 tons compared to the government's target of 4.78 million tons. Sukatus Tarngwiriyakul, acting president of the Rubber Authority, indicated that the reduction in production will affect this year's rubber shipments, as flooding has prevented rubber growers from tapping, and domestic rubber consumption will also be impacted by the flooding.

4. JPMorgan: Our price forecasts show that the average price of Brent crude oil will be $61 per barrel in 2026, while WTI crude oil will be $57 per barrel. It is expected that the price of U.S. natural gas will average $3.50 per million British thermal units in 2025. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to reach $80 per barrel in 2024.

5. An investor asked on the interactive platform whether the company's recent production capacity has been affected by environmental control measures. Has your company considered appropriately reducing production capacity to maintain the price situation of soda ash? Yuanxing Energy responded that its production enterprises have not been affected by environmental control measures. Currently, the supply and demand of soda ash products are basically balanced, and there are no plans for production cuts.

6. OPEC+ sources indicate that OPEC+ may extend the latest round of production cuts until the end of the first quarter of next year at Thursday's meeting.

Metal hot news

1. According to the China Passenger Car Association, based on preliminary monthly data, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in November reached 1.46 million units, a year-on-year increase of 51% and a month-on-month increase of 6%. The domestic retail penetration rate is expected to continue to exceed 50% in November.

2. The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that it found a group of two special client accounts suspected of failing to declare actual control relationships in aluminum oxide futures trading. According to the relevant provisions of the (Shanghai Futures Exchange Trading Rules) and (Shanghai Futures Exchange Actual Control Relationship Account Management Measures), it has decided to impose regulatory measures on the above clients, including a one-month restriction on opening positions and withdrawal.

3. JPMorgan: It is expected that gold prices will rise to $3,000 per ounce next year, with an average price of $2,950 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025. Copper prices are expected to reach $10,400 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an average copper price of $11,000 per ton in 2026. Aluminum prices are expected to trend towards $2,850 per ton in the second half of 2025.

4. Vale expects copper production to be between 340,000 to 370,000 tons in 2025; copper production for this fiscal year is 345,000 tons, previously estimated between 320,000 and 355,000 tons. Nickel production is expected to be between 60,000 to 75,000 tons in 2025; nickel production in 2026 is expected to be between 75,000 and 210,000 tons.

Praise 'Futures' - Revealing the trading logic of varieties!

1. How much more upward space is there for palm oil as its price continues to rise?

Everbright Futures analysis pointed out that on the supply side, production in foreign producing areas is declining, and domestic supply pressure is not substantial. In November, Malaysia's palm oil production declined by 5.3% month-on-month, and the decline in production will continue for a while. On the demand side, the fourth quarter is the traditional peak consumption season for domestic oils, providing some support for domestic demand. Current spot prices are between 10,200 and 10,500 yuan per ton, while December import costs are at 10,982 yuan per ton, and January shipping import costs are at 10,876 yuan per ton, indicating that the spot market is undervalued. Overall, some bullish funds flowed into the market yesterday, but given the lackluster performance of soybean oil and canola oil, the upper price space for the palm oil 2501 contract should not be overly optimistic.

2. Why have rubber futures surged significantly? What are the driving factors behind this?

Ruida Futures analysis pointed out that southern Thailand has recently suffered severe flooding, affecting rubber tapping operations in seven provinces. According to weather forecasts, rainfall in the region will remain above average for the next two weeks, which will further hinder tapping operations. As a result, raw material prices are expected to continue to strengthen. Domestically, rubber tapping operations in Yunnan have gradually entered the final stages, leading to a reduction in raw material supply, which has also supported the rise in rubber prices to some extent. Despite a slight decline in the capacity utilization rate of tire manufacturers, overall demand remains stable. In general, the impact of flooding on the supply side, the cessation of tapping in domestic production areas, and the stable performance on the demand side suggest a tendency for rubber prices to run higher in the short term.

Overview of important futures data and events today

1. On December 4 at 21:15, the U.S. ADP employment numbers for November will be released. Previously, the U.S. ADP employment numbers for October recorded 233,000, with an expected 114,000, a significant increase. Better-than-expected ADP data may enhance market optimism regarding non-farm employment data and reduce concerns about the U.S. economy.

2. On December 4, pending confirmation, a new round of pricing adjustments for domestic refined oil will begin.

3. On December 4, pending confirmation, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association will hold the 2024 Annual Conference of the Photovoltaic Industry. Concurrently, seminars on the development of photovoltaic supply chain support, photovoltaic innovation applications, and various special meetings will be held. Attention will be paid to changes in sentiment regarding related futures varieties.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data