20241203 17:30 pm market BTC, BNB, ETH trend analysis #下一个换谁涨？

BTC first talks about indicator observation:

1. From the technical indicators, the past 24 hours have basically been jumping around 95000. Yesterday's market analysis has predicted the point near 95000, and relatively accurately informed the breakthrough position and the hourly line intervention position. Next, 94776 of the 4-hour line and 90791 of the daily line are two important observation positions. If these two points are broken and there is a corresponding time callback to above these two values, you can do a small amount of long, and the quality loss is set at these two points. Note that for all operations, you must observe what line you look at. Don't use the results of hourly line analysis to speculate with daily lines.

2. Greed and panic index observation: Currently 76, -4 compared to yesterday, and a decline of 4 for two consecutive days, it still belongs to the greed range, which belongs to the slow bull range.

3. Observation of the biggest pain point of options in the next three months: The biggest pain point on December 27 was 80,000, with a large number of positions. Before December 27, the pain points were basically around 95,000. Therefore, it is inferred that the short-term deviation from 95,000 will not be very high. The option contract position ratio is 53%, which further confirms that the price will not deviate too far from 95,000.

4. ETFS continues to flow in. On December 2, institutions increased their holdings by 4,339 BTC, and most institutions continued to increase their holdings. Ethereum also continued to increase its holdings. This further consolidates the price above 90,000.

5. The BTC-MVRV Z score is currently around 3, which is in a relatively safe position, and the probability of a big crash is low

6. From the perspective of the escape top index, it is currently in the middle position, and the risk of escaping the top is at a medium level.

7. The BTC hoarding index is currently high, which is not suitable for fixed investment hoarding.

In summary, BTC is likely to fluctuate around 95,000, and the probability of breaking through 100,000 is still low. From the daily chart, it is also a narrow consolidation. Before the general direction is determined, do not hold too heavy a position. Be cautious in intervening in coins that have already exploded.

BNB can only be said to be very stable and suitable for quantitative trading. Even if BTC plummets, it is estimated that the volatility will be close to BTC. Given that ETH's ETFS continues to increase, its charm is increasing, and it can be used as one of the options for short-term coin hoarding.