1. Macroeconomic Data:
1. US Dollar Index: Finally closed up 0.3%, reported at 106.38
2. Government bond prices: The 2-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.192%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.198%.
3. Gold prices: Finally closed down 0.45%, ending a four-day streak of slight gains, reported at $2638.57 per ounce.
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil at $68 per barrel.
5. Stock Market: Dow Jones closed down 0.29%, S&P 500 index up 0.24%, Nasdaq up 0.97%.
6. USDCNY: 7.30
7. Rate hike expectations: According to the Fed's rate monitor, the probability of maintaining interest rates at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 21.5%, while the probability of cutting rates to 4.25 - 4.50 is 78.5%.
8. Cryptocurrency: Overall market value decreased by 0.68% to $3.44T, 24-hour trading volume increased by 82.06% to $287.75B, stablecoin market value increased by 1.33% to $183.5B.
2. ETF Holdings Data:
Updated on December 2:
Net inflow of 10 Bitcoin ETFs: +2,672 $BTC (+$255.82 million) #BlackRock inflow of 1,410 $BTC ($135.04 million), currently holding 496,854 $BTC ($4.757 billion).
Net inflow of 9 Ethereum ETFs: +104,529 $ETH (+$377.77 million) #BlackRock inflow of 69,671 $ETH ($251.79 million), currently holding 695,247 $ETH ($2.51 billion).
3. Major Macro News from Yesterday:
1. Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed a preference for a rate cut in December, stating this move is both offensive and defensive, but remains open to pausing rate cuts; Atlanta Fed President Bostic is open to whether to cut rates in December, with employment data being key to the decision; New York Fed President Williams noted that continuing to shift to a more neutral policy setting would be appropriate.
2. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November recorded 48.4, the highest since June 2024. US construction spending month-on-month for October recorded 0.4%, the largest increase since April 2024.
3. Israel and Lebanon once again accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement, each launching small-scale attacks.
4. Trump warns Hamas: If hostages in Gaza are not released before the inauguration, Hamas will pay a huge price.
5. Syrian opposition leader: Actions will not cease until the Syrian regime is committed to the UN process and political transition, ready to begin negotiations.
6. OPEC+ sources revealed that OPEC may extend its latest production cut measures until the end of the first quarter of 2025.
7. A leak occurred in the Friendship oil pipeline in Poland. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, both sides have occasionally accused each other of attacking this pipeline.
8. The French Prime Minister bypassed Parliament to force through the budget proposal, and the opposition is expected to propose an impeachment motion, putting the French government at risk of collapse.
9. Eurozone unemployment rate remains at a historic low; the European Central Bank may consider a 25 basis point rate cut in December, rather than 50 basis points. ECB Governing Council member Stournaras stated that the ECB might continue to cut rates in December; Council member Lane also believes a continued rate cut this month is justified; Council member Kazaks noted that the ECB might discuss a larger rate cut in December, but uncertainty is high.
10. To achieve real-time risk management, the UK is considering delaying the release of economic data until after the market opens.
11. German Foreign Minister Baerbock: Germany supports the EU and China continuing negotiations on electric vehicle anti-subsidy issues, aiming to find a solution acceptable to both sides.
12. German Defense Ministry spokesperson: Military supplies delivered to Ukraine in December include Leopard 1 tanks, drones, and the IRIS-T air defense system.
13. Musk: The final step for the Department of Efficiency (DOGE) is to dissolve itself.
14. OpenAI is reportedly considering introducing advertisements to seek new sources of revenue.
15. MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin holdings for the fourth consecutive week, with total holdings reaching $38 billion.
