Futures Early Peak - Audio Version

Female Voice Mandarin Version Download mp3

Macro News

1. The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November, released on December 2, recorded 51.5, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from October, remaining in the expansion zone for two consecutive months. According to the sub-indexes of the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, both supply and demand in the manufacturing sector accelerated. The manufacturing production index and new orders index in November rose to their highest levels since July 2024 and March 2023, respectively. Respondents indicated that improvements in the fundamental demand and new product launches supported the growth of new orders.

2. According to foreign media reports, the latest data released by Alphaliner shows that as of December 2, 2024, the total number of operating container ships worldwide is 7,170, with a total operating capacity of 31,236,246 TEU and a total deadweight tonnage of 370,331,763 tons.

3. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of December 2, 2024, the Shanghai export container settlement price index (European route) was 2828.63 points, down 1.2% compared to the previous period.

4. Central Bank data shows that in November 2024, the People's Bank conducted a total of 764 million yuan in standing lending facility operations with financial institutions, of which overnight funds amounted to 754 million yuan and 7-day funds amounted to 10 million yuan. The balance of standing lending facilities at the end of the period was 600 million yuan. The standing lending facility interest rate has played the role of the upper limit of the interest rate corridor, which is beneficial for maintaining the stable operation of the money market interest rates. The overnight, 7-day, and 1-month standing lending facility interest rates were 2.35%, 2.50%, and 2.85%, respectively.

5. Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that next year, the People's Bank of China will continue to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance and orientation, comprehensively use various monetary policy tools, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, and reduce the comprehensive financing costs for enterprises and residents. The statistical method for money supply will be optimized, incorporating personal demand deposits and non-bank payment institutions' client reserves into M1 statistics, and enhancing monitoring of M2 and other levels of money supply and social liquidity.

6. The People's Bank of China announced that starting from the data for January 2025, it will adopt the newly revised narrow money (M1) statistical methodology. The revised M1 includes: currency in circulation (M0), unit demand deposits, individual demand deposits, and reserves of non-bank payment institutions.

7. Israel and Lebanon again accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement, each carrying out small-scale attacks.

Global Futures Market Fluctuation

1. Domestic commodity futures closed mostly lower in the night session, with mixed results in energy and chemical products; asphalt fell 1.26%. The black series showed mixed results, with iron ore rising 1.12%. Agricultural products generally declined, with corn down 1.44%, soybean oil down 1.35%, corn starch down 1.02%, soybean down 1.01%, and cotton down nearly 1%. Base metals showed mixed results, with Shanghai lead up 1.52%, aluminum oxide up 1.23%, Shanghai copper up 0.47%, Shanghai aluminum up 0.25%, Shanghai zinc down 0.22%, stainless steel down 0.35%, and Shanghai nickel down 0.99%. Shanghai gold rose 0.04%, while Shanghai silver fell 0.27%.

2. International oil prices rose slightly, with U.S. oil January 2025 contracts up 0.25% at $68.17 per barrel. Brent oil February 2025 contracts rose 0.08% to $71.90 per barrel.

3. International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.72% at $2661.8 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.43% at $30.975 per ounce.

4. London base metals closed mixed, with LME copper down 0.16% at $8996.5 per ton, LME zinc down 0.69% at $3081.5 per ton, LME nickel down 0.93% at $15755 per ton, LME aluminum up 0.25% at $2600.5 per ton, LME tin down 1.31% at $28535 per ton, and LME lead up 0.02% at $2073 per ton.

5. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures main contracts closed mixed, with soybean futures down 0.4% at 985.5 cents/bushel; corn futures up 0.06% at 433.25 cents/bushel, and wheat futures down 0.05% at 547.75 cents/bushel.

Hot Information in Black Series

1. From November 25 to December 1, 2024, the total amount of iron ore arriving at 47 Chinese ports was 24.685 million tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons compared to the previous period; the total amount arriving at 45 Chinese ports was 22.910 million tons, a decrease of 62,000 tons; and the total amount arriving at the northern six ports was 10.995 million tons, an increase of 716,000 tons.

2. From November 25 to December 1, 2024, the total amount of iron ore shipped from Australia and Brazil was 25.344 million tons, a decrease of 132,000 tons compared to the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia was 17.742 million tons, an increase of 262,000 tons, of which the amount shipped from Australia to China was 13.736 million tons, a decrease of 959,000 tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 7.602 million tons, a decrease of 394,000 tons. The total global iron ore shipment volume for this period was 30.791 million tons, a decrease of 145,000 tons.

3. According to Mysteel, as of the week ending November 29, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 5.27 million tons, a decrease of 106,000 tons week-on-week; Lianyungang Port's manganese ore inventory was 150,000 tons; and Qinzhou Port's manganese ore inventory was 657,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons week-on-week. The total port manganese ore inventory was 6.077 million tons, a decrease of 126,000 tons compared to the previous period.

Hot Information in Agricultural Products

1. According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, last week the domestic oil mills' soybean crushing volume rebounded slightly. Monitoring shows that as of the week ending November 29, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 1.89 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons week-on-week, an increase of 90,000 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 130,000 tons year-on-year, and a decrease of 140,000 tons compared to the average of the last three years. Since mid-November, domestic soybean oil prices have significantly adjusted, turning the oil mills' soybean crushing profits from positive to negative.

2. According to Mysteel's survey, as of November 28, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports increased by 1.7% week-on-week, with a total inventory of 500,900 tons; as of November 29, 2024, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 3,907,200 tons, an increase of 474,500 tons compared to the previous week (an increase of 13.82%).

3. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, as of November 27, the national live pig market price was 16.94 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.89% compared to November 20; the main wholesale market corn price was 2.20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.65% compared to November 20; and the pig-to-grain price ratio was 7.70, an increase of 3.63% compared to November 20.

4. The South Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) shows that from November 1 to 30, 2024, Malaysia's palm oil yield per hectare decreased by 4.66%, the extraction rate decreased by 0.13%, and the total production decreased by 5.30%.

5. According to Wind data, as of December 2, 2024, the national port inventory of imported soybeans was 7.76172 million tons, down from 7.78052 million tons on November 25, a decrease of 18,800 tons.

6. According to foreign media reports, the agricultural consulting agency AgRural stated on Monday that as of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean planting area for the 2024/2025 season reached 91% of the expected total area, up from 86% the previous week and higher than 85% during the same period last year. AgRural noted in a statement that this is the fastest planting speed since 2018, while some areas of southern Mato Grosso still need rainfall.

7. According to data released by shipping survey institution SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 to 30 are expected to be 1,115,305 tons, a decrease of 23.1% compared to 1,450,085 tons exported during the same period last month.

8. Consulting agency Celeres stated in a report on Monday that Brazil's soybean production for the 2024/2025 season is expected to be 170.8 million tons. Celeres stated that the expected harvest will lead to an export volume of 107 million tons.

9. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced data showing that private exporters reported sales of 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 season.

10. U.S. Department of Agriculture data shows that as of the week ending November 28, 2024, U.S. soybean export inspections amounted to 2,088,361 tons, revised from 2,117,380 tons the previous week, with an initial value of 2,102,002 tons; the U.S. shipped 952,095 tons of soybeans to China (mainland). The previous week, the U.S. shipped 1,230,717 tons of soybeans to mainland China.

11. According to the National Supply Company under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, as of December 1, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 90.0%, up from 83.3% the previous week and 83.1% during the same period last year.

12. The Agricultural Economy Department of Mato Grosso State, Brazil (IMEA) published a monthly report showing that the expected soybean planting area for the 2024/25 season is 12.6616 million hectares; the expected yield is 57.97 bags/hectare, an increase of 11.15% compared to the 2023/24 season's 52.16 bags/hectare; the expected production is 44.0417 million tons, an increase of 12.78% compared to the 2023/24 season's 39.0504 million tons.

Hot Information in Energy and Chemicals

1. According to Longzhong Information, as of December 2, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 17,000 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons from the previous cycle, a drop of 46.03%. The commodity inventory was 10,000 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous cycle, a drop of 51.22%. The total amount of styrene Jiangsu social inventory at the port, pipeline transport, and truck unloading was 20,750 tons, with 35,250 tons delivered this week.

2. According to Longzhong Information, Qingdao bonded warehouse is showing a depletion, general trade is slightly accumulating, and total inventory is slightly declining. Overseas standard rubber arriving at port remains low, and bonded inventory maintains a depletion trend; as mixed rubber arrives in succession, general trade inventory remains high. Facing rising natural rubber prices, downstream enterprises continue to be cautious, and general trade inventory continues to accumulate. As of December 1, 2024, the total inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao area, including bonded and general trade, was 422,800 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous period, a drop of 0.17%. Bonded zone inventory was 54,300 tons, a decrease of 1.81%; general trade inventory was 368,500 tons, an increase of 0.08%.

3. OPEC+ sources revealed that OPEC may extend the latest production cuts through the end of the first quarter of 2025.

Hot Information in Metals

1. As of December 2, Mysteel's survey data shows that the national major market lead ingot inventory was 55,300 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to November 28. The Shanghai market inventory was 6,100 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous period, the Guangdong market inventory was 2,300 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to November 28, the Jiangsu market inventory was 13,900 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous period, the Tianjin market inventory was 8,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared to November 28, and the Zhejiang market inventory was 25,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. Recently, lead prices have fluctuated upward, and social inventory has stopped declining.

2. According to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, based on the (Futures and Derivatives Law of the People's Republic of China) (Futures Trading Management Regulations) and relevant regulations of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is steadily advancing the research and development of polysilicon futures and options, and has drafted (Polysilicon Futures Contract of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange) (draft for comments), (Polysilicon Options Contract of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange) (draft for comments), and (Business Rules for Polysilicon Futures and Options of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange) (draft for comments).

Praise '期' Talk - Revealing Trading Logic of Varieties!

1. Glass stabilizes and rebounds, but is demand highly questionable?

Everbright Futures Analysis pointed out that from a macro perspective, many regions in China further relaxed housing market policies in November, such as first-tier cities canceling the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary housing. The market still has strong expectations for incremental policies related to consumption and real estate from important meetings in December, and market sentiment is expected to remain positively boosted in the short term. However, the transmission of policy to the physical industry chain will still take a long time. From the supply-demand perspective, the progress of industry production line repairs has significantly slowed down, some previously started production lines are producing finished products, and the production capacity of glass has slightly increased. In terms of demand, there is still a need for inventory replenishment in the downstream in December, and year-end rush work will continue to support the rigid demand for glass. However, demand is highly influenced by factors such as weather and transportation, making it inappropriate to be overly optimistic. Therefore, caution should be exercised regarding the potential rebound in glass prices in the short term.

2. Palm oil remains strong, what will the price trend be in the future?

Zhonghui Futures Analysis pointed out that in terms of fundamentals, Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the production reduction season, with Malaysia's palm oil production and export volume both expected to decline month-on-month in November, and Malaysia's palm oil inventory may continue to fall. Indonesia's Chief Economic Minister stated that the B40 biodiesel project will start on January 1, alleviating market concerns about a delay in B40. However, the supply expectation for palm oil remains tight. Nevertheless, as palm oil prices continue to rise, major demand countries like India and China can only reduce their purchase volumes and seek alternative oils. Overall, palm oil is likely to maintain a strong oscillation trend in the short term.

Recent Important Futures Data and Event Overview

1. On December 3 at 4:15, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak; at 5:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a dialogue hosted by the Queens Chamber of Commerce; on December 4 at 21:45, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem will speak; on December 5 at 3:00, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will be interviewed at the DealBook/Summit conference organized by The New York Times; on December 7 at 1:00, 2024 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Harmack will speak on economic prospects. Attention should be paid to the changes in the hawkish or dovish stance of important U.S. officials' speeches.

2. On December 4 at 21:15, U.S. November ADP employment numbers will be released. Previously, the U.S. October ADP employment number was recorded at 233,000, with an expectation of 114,000, a significant increase. Better-than-expected ADP data may enhance market optimism regarding non-farm employment data and reduce concerns about the U.S. economy.

3. On December 4, to be determined, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open for a new round.

4. On December 4, to be determined, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association will hold the 2024 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference. Simultaneously, seminars on photovoltaic supply chain development, photovoltaic innovation application development, and various thematic meetings will also be held. Attention should be paid to the changes in market sentiment towards related futures varieties during the conference.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data