The BTC rate today breaks through two important supports. First, the EMA 50 on the four-hour timeframe. Second, the volume level of $95,665. The price has now gone below the psychological level of $95,000.
In the previous review on Friday, November 29, we wrote that if after the unsuccessful breakout of the descending trendline from November 22, the price forms a bearish engulfing on the four-hour timeframe - we will wait for a move towards $95,665. A full-fledged bearish engulfing did not occur then. The price tested the EMA 50 of this timeframe, bounced, and formed a second false breakout of the descending trendline from November 22. And it went to collect liquidity below $95,665.
Our forecast since mid-November that #BTC is preparing to enter a range after a turbulent rise continues to play out. And, as we mentioned last week, the chart is forming something similar to what was observed from March to October. But in miniature.
So far, the price is visually consolidating in a triangle. BUT our forecast is that this will still be a structure with decreasing highs and lows. Again - similar to the more global structure from March to October. Where liquidity will be collected from below in stages while accumulating it above. For the start of the execution of this forecast, what matters is not so much the breakout of the ascending trendline from November 17, which is drawn on the chart with volume levels, but rather the volume level of $91,306.
The targets upon breakout remain the same:
- $90,564,
- $89,365,
- $87,684,
- $84,737 (and lower - we still do not expect).
As long as the price is below the volume level of $95,665 and the EMA 50 on the four-hour timeframe (which are essentially one pool of resistances right now) - we are waiting for a test of the level of $94,199, near which a secondary descending trendline (dashed) from November 25 is passing. And upon breaking this combo of resistances today - we may well see an additional impulse straight to $92,226.
Descending candlestick structures on the #BTC chart now - both on the four-hour and daily timeframes. This is also an argument for the continuation of the correction towards the indicated targets.
Considering that we are talking about a 'mini-version' of the movement from March to October, we believe that according to our indicator, it is currently most reasonable to focus on signals of potential highs and lows on the four-hour and twelve-hour timeframes. The latter is especially good right now. The chart shows how it has been performing since the start of the range on November 22.
In a more localized view, all three basic correction targets have been worked out today according to the indicator on the hourly timeframe, and in the last two hours, there are signals of potential lows.
But there is still a third of the possible candles ahead; a local bounce on this timeframe will not occur until there is a reversal into a sustainable uptrend on the lower, 15-minute timeframe. As always, the emergence of a reversal is to be sought on the lower timeframes. For now, the trend remains downward. Moreover, on the two-hour timeframe, the price is also in a sustainable downtrend, with unclosed targets of $94,471 and $93,705.
It is worth monitoring the four-hour timeframe. A transition of the price into a sustainable downtrend even with a subsequent bounce opens the way to the range of $92,000 - $93,500.
With such a decline, altcoins will certainly provide much more comfortable entry points. However, today’s review on the weekly timeframe confirms the trend for a global reversal of the altcoin market. And this week’s correction is a chance specifically for purchases, not for closing in fear of even greater correction. The market is locally overbought and is correcting, 'shaving off' the most risky margin traders.
The current decrease in the BTC price has closed a small gap of $96,460 - $96,705 on CME futures. We remind you that this time it was formed not over the weekend, but from Thursday to Friday.
