Futures Morning Peak - Audio Version

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Macroeconomic news

1. Liu Ye, head of the International Department of the People's Bank of China, stated at a routine press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the factors affecting the exchange rate are diverse, and the future RMB exchange rate may maintain a two-way fluctuation trend.

2. Wang Shouwen, the international trade negotiator and deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, introduced at a press conference that the Ministry of Commerce will work with relevant localities and departments to closely track the operation of foreign trade, analyze changes in the situation, ensure the implementation of policies in the foreign trade sector, help foreign trade enterprises stabilize orders and expand markets, and provide strong support for the continued recovery and improvement of the economy.

3. According to the National Energy Administration, as of the end of October, the total installed capacity for power generation nationwide was approximately 3.19 billion kilowatts, an increase of 14.5% year-on-year. Among them, the installed capacity for solar power generation was approximately 790 million kilowatts, an increase of 48.0% year-on-year; wind power installed capacity was approximately 490 million kilowatts, an increase of 20.3% year-on-year.

4. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center announced the November Purchasing Managers' Index for China today (30th). With a series of stock and incremental policies continuing to work in synergy, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index continues to rise within the expansion range of over 50%, and the prosperity level remains stable. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for November was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month. Recently, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index has increased for three consecutive months and has been in the expansion range for two consecutive months.

5. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that he is prepared to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict in exchange for NATO membership, even if Russia does not immediately return the territories it controls, but NATO's invitation must recognize Ukraine's internationally recognized borders.

6. Lebanese Hezbollah leader: Hezbollah has "approved" the ceasefire agreement with Israel and will coordinate at a high level with the Lebanese army to ensure the ceasefire agreement is implemented.

7. The State Council Tariff Commission announced the (method for collecting tariffs, value-added tax, and consumption tax on imported goods) and decided to extend the exemption period for tariff products imposed by the U.S. until February 28, 2025.

8. The market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism working meeting emphasized: deposit rates must not violate regulations, and loan interest rates must comply with risk pricing principles.

Global futures market volatility

1. Domestic commodity futures closed mixed in the night session, with most energy and chemical products rising, asphalt up 3.4%, butadiene rubber up 2.87%, fuel oil up 1.01%, crude oil up 0.02%, soda ash down 1.28%. The black series all fell, with coking coal down 1.24%. Most agricultural products fell, with vegetable oil down 1%, palm oil up 1.43%. Most base metals closed higher, with tin up 2.5%, zinc up 1.33%, aluminum up 0.42%, copper up 0.18%, lead up 0.12%, stainless steel down 0.54%, nickel down 0.94%. Gold rose 0.47%, silver rose 1.06%.

2. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.47% at $2,673.9 per ounce, a weekly decline of 1.41%; COMEX silver futures up 1.37% at $31.1 per ounce, a weekly decline of 0.76%.

3. International oil prices fell across the board, with U.S. oil January 2025 contract down 1.06% to $68.15 per barrel, a weekly decline of 4.34%; Brent oil February 2025 contract down 0.95% to $72.09 per barrel, a weekly decline of 4.1%.

4. Most base metals in London closed higher, with LME copper up 0.09% at $9,080.5 per ton, a weekly increase of 0.87%; LME zinc down 0.17% at $2,946.5 per ton, a weekly decline of 0.03%; LME nickel down 0.31% at $15,680 per ton, a weekly increase of 0.9%; LME aluminum up 0.21% at $2,613 per ton, a weekly decline of 1.38%; LME tin up 0.8% at $29,255 per ton, a weekly increase of 1.78%; LME lead up 0.18% at $1,994.5 per ton, a weekly increase of 1.92%.

5. Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) agricultural futures main contracts collectively closed higher, with soybean futures up 0.2% at 990.75 cents per bushel, a weekly increase of 0.74%; corn futures up 1.23% at 433.25 cents per bushel, a weekly decline of 0.46%; wheat futures up 0.18% at 549.5 cents per bushel, a weekly decline of 2.7%.

Black series hot news

1. According to Mysteel statistics, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide is 150.4689 million tons, a decrease of 2.7249 million tons from last week, with an average daily throughput of 3.3587 million tons, an increase of 88,900 tons month-on-month, and the number of vessels in port is 109, an increase of 13; the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide is 156.1689 million tons, a decrease of 3.1249 million tons; the average daily throughput is 3.5077 million tons, an increase of 109,900 tons.

2. According to Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of blast furnaces is 81.62%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from last week, an increase of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year; the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces for iron making is 87.8%, a decrease of 0.73 percentage points from last week, an increase of 0.17 percentage points year-on-year; the profit rate of steel mills is 51.95%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from last week, an increase of 12.56 percentage points year-on-year; the average daily pig iron production is 2.3387 million tons, a decrease of 19,300 tons from last week.

3. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's November silicon manganese pricing is 6280, third-round inquiry price is 6250, second-round inquiry price is 6200, first-round inquiry price is 6100 yuan/ton. October silicon manganese pricing: 6200 yuan/ton. (Pricing for November 2023 is 6730 yuan/ton).

4. According to Mysteel, the latest survey statistics on new furnace stoppages and restarts show that 14 blast furnaces plan to be overhauled in December, involving a capacity of approximately 62,000 tons/day; 2 blast furnaces plan to restart, involving a capacity of approximately 17,500 tons/day. If the current stoppage and restart plans are implemented, the average daily pig iron production in December is expected to be 2.325 million tons.

5. Inner Mongolia Yaxin Steel Plant has released its winter storage policy, including (2024 Yaxin winter storage policy), price protection policy, price protection until March 31, 2025, listed price -40 yuan/ton, no increase when prices rise, decrease when prices fall, can price at any time (can also price after leaving the warehouse), half pulled before the year, half pulled after the year, needs to be cleared before March 31, cash or pallet available.

6. Mysteel statistics show that the operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises nationwide is 42.53%, a decrease of 0.94% from last week; the average daily output is 27,850 tons, an increase of 430 tons month-on-month.

7. According to the investigation and release of the steel industry PMI by the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI for November 2024 is 50.6%, down 4 percentage points month-on-month, ending two consecutive months of month-on-month increases, but the index remains in the expansion range, indicating that after the peak season, the growth rate of the steel industry has slowed down, but still maintains a slightly increasing trend compared to last month.

8. Steel Silver E-commerce announced that the total inventory of the national steel market this week is 6.8093 million tons, a decrease of 133,700 tons (-1.93%) from last week. Among them, the total inventory of construction steel is 3.1219 million tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons (-0.29%) from last week; the total inventory of hot rolls is 2.1021 million tons, a decrease of 94,300 tons (-4.29%) from last week.

Agricultural product hot news

1. According to Wind data, as of the week ending November 29, the profit from self-breeding and self-raising of pigs was 195.78 yuan per head, up from 153.59 yuan per head on November 22; the profit from purchasing piglets was a loss of 9.98 yuan per head, compared to a loss of 63.23 yuan per head on November 22.

2. Data released by the Canadian Grain Commission shows that as of the week ending November 24, Canada's canola exports decreased by 30.9% to 130,900 tons from the previous week, which was 189,500 tons. From August 1, 2024, to November 24, 2024, Canada's canola exports totaled 3.6948 million tons, an increase of 90.5% compared to 1.9398 million tons in the same period last year. As of November 24, Canada's canola commercial inventory was 1.3486 million tons.

3. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced the #7 upland cotton special import quota. The USDA stated that the quota will take effect from December 5, 2024, allowing the import of 6,905,322 kilograms of upland cotton (31,716 bales, 1 bale = 480 pounds).

4. According to foreign media reports, Indonesia's Chief Economic Minister stated last Friday that Indonesia will continue to implement the B40 biodiesel program starting January 1 next year, currently using B35. According to previous estimates by the Indonesian Biofuel Producers Association (APROBI), B40 will increase Indonesia's palm oil usage for biodiesel to 13.9 million tons, while the estimated requirement for this year is 11 million tons.

5. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that private exporters reported sales of 840,000 tons and 151,700 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, totaling 991,700 tons of soybeans for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year. The U.S. soybean marketing year begins on September 1.

6. U.S. Department of Agriculture data shows that as of the week ending November 21, net sales of U.S. soybeans for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 2.49 million tons, exceeding the market expectation of 1.5 to 2.4 million tons, up from 1.861 million tons the previous week; net sales of U.S. corn for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 1.063 million tons, in line with market expectations, down from 1.495 million tons the previous week.

7. An official from the Indonesian Ministry of Trade stated that Indonesia will raise the reference price for crude palm oil (CPO) in December from $961.97 per ton in November to $1,071.67 per ton. Based on the new reference price, the export tax for crude palm oil in December will be $178 per ton, up from $124 per ton previously.

8. According to Mysteel's survey of nationwide dynamic all-sample oil plants, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil plants in week 48 (November 23 to November 29) was 1.8903 million tons, with an operating rate of 54%, which is 34,100 tons lower than estimated.

9. According to shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from November 1 to 30 was 1,473,761 tons, a decrease of 9.3% compared to the same period last month, which was 1,624,210 tons.

10. According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from November 1 to 30 was 1,417,436 tons, a decrease of 10.4% compared to the same period last month, which was 1,581,118 tons.

Energy and chemical hot news

1. According to Longzhong Information, last week, the capacity utilization rate of polypropylene increased by 0.49% to 74.81%, and Sinopec's capacity utilization rate increased by 2.28% to 70.15%. The increase in production loads at Hainan Ethylene and Qingdao Refining contributed to the rise in Sinopec's capacity utilization rate.

2. According to data from the Osaka Exchange (OSE) on November 29, as of November 20, 2024, the inventory of rubber (RSS) in designated warehouses of the exchange was 1,836 tons, a decrease of 257 tons compared to 2,093 tons as of November 10.

3. According to SMM, the procurement price of caustic soda for mainstream alumina plants in Shanxi province fell by 400 yuan/ton in December compared to November, with the delivered price for 50% ion membrane liquid caustic soda around 3060-3160 yuan/ton (on a discounted basis), with slight price differences in some areas due to varying transportation distances.

4. According to Wind data, as of November 28, methanol inventory at East China ports was 662,900 tons, down from 731,400 tons on November 21, a decrease of 68,500 tons month-on-month.

5. According to preliminary data obtained by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in November 2024, China's heavy truck market sold about 71,000 units (wholesale, including exports and new energy), up 7% from October, and basically flat compared to the same period last year, which was 71,100 units. Cumulatively, from January to November 2024, the sales of various types of heavy trucks in China were about 820,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of about 5%. The overall heavy truck market turned from negative to flat in November, mainly due to the drive of truck "trade-in".

6. The Russian government announced on Saturday that it has lifted the temporary export ban on gasoline producers but will extend restrictions on other fuel exporters until January 31, 2025. The Russian gasoline export ban was originally set to expire at the end of this year.

Metal hot news

1. According to SMM, Dongfang Hesheng Silicon Industry (Shanshan) plans to stop production of 30 industrial silicon submerged arc furnaces on the evening of November 29, while the reduction plan for Xibei Hesheng Silicon Industry (Shihezi) is still unclear, with expected monthly production impact of over 60,000 tons. As a result, the official silicon cloud online platform of Hesheng has ceased pricing.

2. According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, last week copper inventory decreased by 11,461 tons, aluminum inventory decreased by 4,053 tons, zinc inventory decreased by 9,156 tons, lead inventory decreased by 4,209 tons, nickel inventory increased by 1,820 tons, and tin inventory decreased by 547 tons.

3. According to SMM, as of November 29, the national port nickel ore inventory decreased slightly by 210,000 wet tons to 10.008 million wet tons compared to November 22. The total equivalent metal amount is 78,570 metal tons.

4. According to foreign media reports, Chile's state-owned copper company Codelco is working hard to increase copper production to meet its 2024 production targets. As the world's largest copper producer, Codelco is striving to recover from its lowest production in 25 years, hoping to achieve about 1.331 million tons of copper production by the end of this year, an increase of 0.5% from last year, at the lower limit of its target range.

Praise "期" Talk - Revealing the trading logic of varieties!

1. Indonesia reiterates implementation of the B40 plan in January 2025, is there still a possibility of palm oil price increase in the future?

Guangfa Futures Analysis points out that from a weather perspective, the supply side needs to pay attention to the resumption of production after heavy rainfall, but with the arrival of seasonal production reductions, production in the main producing areas of Indonesia and Malaysia is difficult to reverse. On the demand side, the Indonesian government has repeatedly emphasized the mandatory implementation of the B40 blending plan, and according to an interview with Bloomberg, Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs stated that the palm oil fund management agency has sufficient funds to support the implementation of the B40 blending plan starting in January next year, providing a strong boost to the market. Looking ahead, we believe that the reduction of production in the main producing areas is difficult to change, and the production areas show a low inventory pattern, with palm oil as the anchor for oils likely to continue to lead the oil fats sector.

2. Year after year, what is different about this winter storage?

Zhengxin Futures Analysis points out that under weak terminal demand, both steel and raw materials show relatively weak winter storage willingness downstream. Additionally, terminal demand in 2025 still faces many challenges and is expected to continue to decline, especially as the real estate sector remains in a downward cycle, infrastructure is constrained by local government debt reduction, and exports may face increasing trade frictions, which will limit the winter storage willingness of coking steel enterprises. Moreover, the generally loose supply-demand pattern of coal and coke continues to suppress market prices, which will also constrain the winter storage willingness of coking steel enterprises. This year's winter storage expectations on the industrial side are weak, and coupled with market concerns about next year's terminal demand, it is expected that winter storage will have a limited boosting effect on market prices, and black series commodities are likely to maintain a range-bound shock operation throughout the year.

Overview of important futures data and events this week

1. On December 2 at 9:45, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November will be released. Previously, the Caixin Services PMI for October was 51.9. On December 4 at 9:45, China's Caixin Services PMI for November will be released. Previously, the Caixin Services PMI for October was 52.

2. On December 2, pending, Malaysia's SPPOMA production estimate for November 1-30; on December 6, pending, Malaysia's MPOA palm oil production estimate for November 1-30, and Malaysia's SPPOMA palm oil production estimate for December 1-5. Previous data showed weak palm oil exports and declining production. It is necessary to closely observe the latest changes in supply and demand.

3. On December 3 at 4:15, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak; at 5:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a dialogue organized by the Queens Chamber of Commerce; on December 4 at 21:45, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak; on December 5 at 3:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be interviewed at the DealBook/Summit conference organized by The New York Times; on December 7 at 1:00, 2024 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Mester will speak about the economic outlook. Pay attention to the hawkish and dovish tendencies of important U.S. officials' speeches.

4. On December 4 at 21:15, the U.S. November ADP employment numbers will be released. Previously, the U.S. October ADP employment numbers were reported at 233,000, with an expectation of 114,000, a significant increase. Better-than-expected ADP data may enhance the market's optimistic expectations for non-farm employment data, reducing concerns about the U.S. economy.

5. On December 4, pending, domestic refined oil will open a new round of price adjustment window.

6. On December 4, pending, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association will hold the 2024 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference. The conference will also hold a discussion on the development of the photovoltaic supply chain and innovative application development, as well as various special meetings. Pay attention to the emotional changes of related futures varieties during the conference.

7. On December 5 at 3:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions. Previously, although inflation data exceeded expectations, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish stance weakened, but the market remains optimistic about the prospect of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.

8. On December 5 at 21:30, the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 30 will be released. Previously, the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 23 was recorded at 213,000, with an expectation of 216,000, lower than expected, indicating that the labor market remains strong, and this decrease suggests that the U.S. job market continues to remain stable.

9. On December 6 at 21:30, the U.S. November adjusted non-farm employment population and U.S. November unemployment rate will be released. Previously, the U.S. October adjusted non-farm employment population recorded an increase of 12,000, the smallest increase since December 2020. The unemployment rate for October remained unchanged at 4.1%. Citibank expects the U.S. November non-farm employment data to record 150,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data