Today, on the brink of changing the monthly candle, I want to once again consider the market situation and prospects for the coming week. The price this week has once again worked out according to the forecast for a local breakout and test of 3750. Moving forward as planned towards the change of the month, the probability of consolidation around the key level of 3500 predominates, which determines the direction towards 5000 or 2500 in the case of consolidation below it. I think the new month will open above 3500 due to the positive opening of the half-year, quarter, and second half of the quarter, which signal support for purchases. Today, there remains the likelihood of breaking 3750 with an attempt to close the month above, but with lesser probability, as this week the attempt to retest 3000-3100 was bought back, and this target remains for the new month, which puts pressure on the market.
Bears are quite likely to take advantage of the current pullback to 3500 to achieve targets on the retest of 3100. Therefore, at the beginning of the week, a market crash is possible even with the opening of the month above 3500, which will draw a shadow on the new monthly candle both at the tops and in altcoins. For coins that have shown significant growth this month, this momentum may turn into stable sales and a pullback on the yearly chart until the beginning of the new year. It is wise to be cautious when working with overbought coins. Coins that have not shown significant growth this month are likely to give a slight pullback and quickly return to continuing their growth.
After the shadow on the new monthly candle, I expect a recovery in buyer activity from the middle of the week and a continuation of the bullish trend, with a reversal of the weekly and monthly candles to bullish by the end of the week. Purchases are likely to persist until mid-December against the backdrop of last month's trend. During this period, bulls should manage to break 3750.
Against the backdrop of the current pullback, I have reduced positions in AST and AKRO as they have incomplete emissions and are more sensitive to market downturns in this context. There is also no clear breakout to a new high, indicating buyer concerns regarding the upcoming pullback. I am holding VIB in full volume due to the absence of pitfalls in the form of emissions. There is a likelihood of a spike to 0.1 with an attempt to close the month above. I also have a fairly large position in VITE, due to the complete emission and high oversold condition similar to VIB.
