During the bear market cycle and the alternating bull-bear cycle (small bull), the trend characteristics of the cryptocurrency market are that after BTC rises, ETH rises, after ETH rises, altcoins rise, and after altcoins rise, there is a pullback. However, in the large bull cycle 180 days after the BTC halving, it does not follow this pattern; instead, altcoins rise first, and then funds immediately rotate back to BTC to continue rising, which promotes the formation of a unidirectional upward trend. Only when it reaches a phase peak that cannot be broken for a long time will there be a pullback, and this pullback is generally a 1-day line adjustment cycle or a 4-hour level adjustment. Therefore, the momentum in the early to mid-phase of the large bull cycle is the strongest overall, and one should not blindly short or chase shorts; excessive short positions are dangerous actions. Do not rashly speculate on the top of the bull market or mistakenly believe that just because the price has risen too much, it can be shorted or viewed as bearish down to 80,000, 70,000.

I set the starting point of this large bull run as the early morning of November 5 this year, expecting it to run for 12 months.