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Many people ask, what stage are we currently in within the bull market?

If we categorize by the weekly structure, I personally believe we are now in the second half of the bull market and it is still in the early stage of the second half.

The first half of the bull market runs from December 2022 to March 2024. This phase is essentially a transition from rebound to reversal and is a phase of extreme uncertainty. It is very normal for everyone to be full of doubts and confusion about the starting time of the new bull market. It wasn't until early this year when it surged to 50,000 that the market slowly reached a consensus, believing that we are now in a new bull market.

From March 2024 to October 2024, the overall phase is a mid-game break after the first half of the bull market. Due to the ongoing fluctuations during this phase, especially with Bitcoin, which is close to a spreading triangle state, market confidence has been insufficient. Many who previously firmly believed Bitcoin could reach 100,000 or even higher have become uncertain amid significant market fluctuations, and many bulls have even turned bearish. The altcoin market has plummeted, and the continuous decline has severely impacted retail investor confidence, leading to doubts about whether the bull market has ended, filling the market with a new round of skepticism and confusion.

After the mid-game break concludes, starting from November 2024, when Bitcoin breaks above 73,777, it will essentially mark the beginning of the second half of the bull market. The main representative of this phase is that Bitcoin continues to surge after breaking 73,777, reaching around 100,000 with little pause. Ethereum's rebound after the decline smoothly transitioned into a reversal, while altcoins rose from lower levels, generally 1 to 3 times the bottom. These phenomena essentially indicate the beginning of the second half of the bull market.

Making money in the second half of the bull market will be easier because as the market reaches a certain height, the consensus of the bull market will further strengthen, and the bullish cohesion in the market will become more solid. In this case, all market forces will gather together, and everyone will work in the same direction, making explosive growth much easier. Therefore, during this phase, it is advisable to prepare more funds and take bold actions. Whether the market can make money in the coming years depends on this wave.

The reason it is said that we are in the early stage of the second half of the bull market is mainly because the market has just started to show some signs of improvement, and it has not yet reached a stage where there is a unanimous bullish consensus. Many people still remain cautious about the current market; once everyone stops worrying about a significant pullback and no longer fears heights, the market will gradually transition into the mid or late stage of the second half of the bull market.

BTC mid to long term

Weekly:

Weekly, currently in the third upward move at the weekly level. It is uncertain how long this weekly upward movement can last, initially looking towards mid-2025. As for whether it can extend longer, we will see later. The overall target is to focus on the 150,000 to 200,000 range, though this target is only a preliminary estimate; no one knows where the final upward movement will reach.

Daily:

Daily level, currently in the first upward move of the daily level during the weekly upward movement, and this daily upward movement has not yet ended. The upper expectation is to further break 100,000 and reach around 120,000. This daily upward movement still requires at least one 4h level upward move, expected to last until the end of December or early January, after which a daily level pullback will occur. There is a gap around 78,000 to 80,000, and it is uncertain whether the next daily pullback will provide that opportunity.

Once the daily level pullback is complete, as long as it does not fall below 73,000, the overall upward trend will remain unshakeable, and there will still be a daily upward move to a higher position, such as the 150,000 to 200,000 range. As for whether a daily center will be established later, we will see.

Based on the current height, after Bitcoin surpasses 100,000, will the altcoin market go crazy?

4H:

4h level, this is expected to be a 4h level pullback, but it is actually just a shallow pullback, so there is no need to overly worry about the market dropping. In the coming days, if Bitcoin can oscillate down to around 90,000, that should be about enough. There will still be a new 4h level upward movement afterwards, with the next target being around 116,000 to 120,000.

Of course, there is another scenario where Bitcoin sets a new high here, i.e., breaking 99,588, which would indicate that the 4h pullback has not yet begun. But there is no need to worry; even if it makes another short-term high, a 4h level pullback will still follow.

BTC short term

Due to the rapid changes in the short term, the article can only make predictions based on the market at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market, which should only serve as a reference.

1H:

1 level, as long as this 1h level rebound does not break 99,500 again, it is still in the process of a 4h level pullback, currently checking if it can push up to the 98,000 to 99,000 range. It is expected that a 1h level pullback may occur in the next day or two, with support around 93,000. After that, it may consolidate into a 1h level center before retesting the 91,000 to 90,000 range.

Of course, if it breaks 99,500 again, it would indicate that the 4h pullback has not yet begun and is still an extension of the previous rebound. However, it shouldn't go too far up and will still undergo a 4h pullback. Thus, the current stage can actually be understood as an adjustment phase in an upward continuation; pullbacks in the adjustment phase are opportunities.

15M:

15-minute level, the 1h level upward movement has finally unfolded, let's see if it can go up here in the short term, ideally pushing up to 98,000. If the 15-minute level falls below 96,200 again, it suggests that the 1h rebound has ended and is about to start a 1h level pullback.

ETH

15-minute level, currently in continuous fluctuations. Normally, Ethereum should push for a wave to 3,700, but it has not yet provided that. So this needs to be observed; if it falls below 3,440 again, it is inclined towards a 1h level pullback. If it falls below 3,350, a 4h level pullback should be expected. Ethereum's overall movement is still an upward trend at the daily level that started from 2,100, with an expected target of around 4,000 or slightly above 4,200. Ethereum's weekly upward movement requires breaking 4,800 to create a new historical high.

Trend direction

Weekly level: Direction upwards, currently in a new uptrend at the weekly level, overall target looking above 150,000

Daily level: Direction upwards, the daily level upward movement is expected to reach around 120,000

4-hour level: Direction downwards, unless it breaks 99,500, it should still be a 4h level pullback

1-hour level: Direction downwards, after the 1h level rebound ends, the price will oscillate downwards again to complete a 4h level pullback

15-minute level: Direction downwards, the 1h rebound is nearly complete; if it falls below 96,200 again, it suggests a new 1h level pullback is in progress.