The first large pool of U.S. macroeconomic data has been released today.
- Core durable goods orders (m/m) (October) - 0.1% with a forecast of 0.2% and a previous figure of 0.4%.
- Core personal consumption expenditure price index (3rd quarter) - 2.1% with a forecast of 2.2% and a previous figure of 2.8%.
- Durable goods orders (m/m) (October) - 0% with a forecast of 0.2% and a previous figure of -0.4%.
- GDP (q/q) (3rd quarter) - 2.8% with a forecast of 2.8% and a previous figure of 3.0%.
- The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits - 213 thousand with a forecast of 215 thousand and a previous figure of 215 thousand.
What do these data indicate?
1. A slowdown in core durable goods orders indicates a decrease in business activity in the manufacturing sector. This may signal a weakening demand for durable goods. And one of the factors, albeit not the main one, for the decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which has an inverse correlation with the crypto market.
2. A moderate decrease in the core personal consumption expenditure price index indicates a further stabilization of the inflation situation.
3. GDP for the third quarter matched forecasts - 2.8%, but the slowdown in growth compared to the previous quarter (3.0%) indicates a gradual deceleration of economic growth.
4. The U.S. labor market remains strong despite the Federal Reserve's tight and prolonged interest rate policy that preceded the current reduction. This gives the regulator the opportunity to slow the pace of monetary policy easing if inflation remains at previous levels. In short - arguments for pausing the interest rate are accumulating.
5. The resilience of the labor market and additional signs of success in the fight against inflation - in the medium and long term - is positive for risk asset markets, including cryptocurrencies. However, locally, the expectation that the reduction in interest rates may pause is negative.
But for now, and locally on this data, BTC shows growth. MOREOVER - on the hourly timeframe it shows a transition to a stable uptrend. But even if the asset remains in it - we expect a pullback soon, after testing the EMA 50 on the four-hour timeframe. Plus, the last such signal on Monday was a fake move.
