November 27, 2024 "Short-term Stabilization, Market Unfazed"

Short-term stabilization, it seems that the market is likely to end its pullback here. Although I expect the big coin to pull back to around 90,000, that would be about a 10-point drop, and leverage below 10 times will likely get liquidated. However, this wave of decline has also caused over 500 million dollars in liquidations in the contract market, which is already considered decent compared to the slight pullbacks in the previous two instances. According to past market patterns, liquidations reaching over 1.5 billion dollars would typically damage the market, so this wave is expected to recover in a short time.

It's worth noting that this pullback has been quite significant for the big coin, including the ETH/BTC exchange rate, which shows a clear upward trend on the 4-hour chart. As for DeFi projects that I focus on, like UNI, 1inch, and dYdX, they haven't seen a larger decline after the surge, while AAVE, COMP, and MKR have even experienced greater rebounds today. These are all phenomena of capital influence, and in my view, it can also be seen as a form of value discovery.

We all know that if the market continues to rely on meme coins for speculation, there will eventually be a collapse. Although past DeFi projects have also experienced market cap collapses, they only remained at the asset issuance level, and the market trend couldn't last long. If this wave of meme coin enthusiasm can attract capital to the overall market, and those who made money previously are willing to pull the market up again, then there is still something to play with.

The spot Bitcoin ETF, MicroStrategy using off-exchange leverage to buy the big coin, and the “preaching” from Musk and Trump have all brought a lot of buying power to the big coin, leading to a crazy surge in BTC prices that prompted some ancient whales to sell off, which is a reasonable pullback. However, as long as this capital hasn't spilled over to other sectors, I believe the trend won't end yet. This pullback presents a good opportunity to increase holdings; if you can identify some targets, you can go for it.

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