Today, I want to share about the book I've been reading these past two days (The Black Swan). In this book, the author deeply analyzes the cognitive blind spots in our thinking, which are the traps that repeatedly cause us to stumble on the path to making money. The author points out that most people lose money in business or investments not because they aren't smart enough or because the market is too cruel, but because we overlook those unexpected black swan events. The purpose of writing this book is to help us identify these cognitive misunderstandings and avoid traps, which can greatly assist us in our investments, business dealings, career planning, and even in choosing a partner. Understanding the true rules of how the world operates is crucial. There is an example in the book: suppose you randomly find 1,000 people to measure their average weight, and then add a 400-pound person to this group. Will this significantly raise the average weight? Almost no effect, because weight doesn't deviate too far from the average; the heaviest person is only a few times heavier than the lightest. This illustrates the characteristics of the average world. However, if we measure the average wealth of 1,000 people and then add one rich individual, the situation changes completely; that person's wealth may be hundreds of times the total wealth of the 1,000 people combined. This is the manifestation of the extreme world, like income, financial investment returns, media traffic, company size, etc., all belong to the realm of the extreme world. The author emphasizes that most people are unaware of this and tend to view the extreme world with the rules of the average world, often leading them into misconceptions. In the average world, those with high incomes are usually the hardest workers, like delivery drivers or ride-hailing drivers; the more orders they take, the more they earn, which is achieved through diligence. However, in the extreme world, luck, cognition, and vision may be more important than hard work. A certain unknown person might suddenly become famous online with a song, and their worth could instantly multiply several hundred times. Many might feel that society is sick when they see that a small singer can earn so much more than a hardworking delivery driver; it's unfair. The author tells us that the extreme world is inherently unfair, but it is precisely because of these extreme black swan events that history moves forward. Society changes due to these seemingly outrageous extreme events, which are the true driving force behind human progress. Therefore, when we are making career plans, understanding these two operating principles of the world will help us choose a path that is more suitable for us. If we pursue stability and are willing to rely on time and effort to accumulate wealth, then choosing a career in the average world may be more suitable. Although it may not necessarily lead to great wealth, it can definitely provide a stable income for living. But if we want to take a risk and are capable of bearing high risks, we can try to seek opportunities in the extreme world, such as in entrepreneurship, financial investment, or the arts; although the probability of success is low, the potential returns can be significant once successful. However, one must understand: in the extreme world, success requires not only hard work but also the right timing, geographical advantage, and people; one needs to have keen insight to seize fleeting opportunities while also being mentally prepared to face failure. Sharing practical insights, Ping Zhiyuan.
