Futures Morning Peak - Audio Version
Female Mandarin Version Download mp3
Macroeconomic news
1. According to CCTV News, on the 25th local time, President-elect Trump stated that he would impose a 25% tariff on all products entering the U.S. from Mexico and Canada. Additionally, Trump announced an extra 10% tariff on Chinese goods. In an interview last year, Trump proposed a universal 10% tariff on all imported goods.
2. The Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice regarding adjustments to housing provident fund policies. The maximum loan amount for a single applicant is adjusted to 800,000 yuan, while the maximum loan amount for two or more people purchasing the same self-occupied housing jointly is adjusted to 1.6 million yuan.
3. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated on Tuesday that Ukraine has attacked Russia twice in the past three days using U.S.-made ATACMS missiles, and Russia is preparing to take retaliatory measures. The ministry indicated that both attacks targeted air defense positions in the Kursk region, with one or two missiles hitting the targets, although most missiles were intercepted.
4. Hezbollah senior official and member of parliament Hassan Fadlallah stated on Tuesday that Hezbollah will continue to remain active after the war with Israel ends, including helping displaced Lebanese return to their villages and rebuild areas destroyed by Israeli attacks.
5. Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Officials lean towards a gradual approach to rate cuts in the future; some officials mentioned the persistently high inflation and weak labor market as reasons for a potential pause in easing or accelerating easing; in the future, consideration will be given to lowering the overnight reverse repo rate by 5 basis points to align it with the lower bound of the federal funds rate.
Global futures market fluctuations
1. International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.58% at $2,633.8 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up 0.8% at $30.48 per ounce.
2. International oil prices showed mixed results, with U.S. oil for January 2025 contracts rising by 0.03% to $68.96 per barrel. Brent oil for February 2025 contracts fell by 0.03% to $72.46 per barrel.
3. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures main contracts closed mixed, with soybean futures down 0.28% at 983 cents per bushel; corn futures down 1.15% at 428 cents per bushel; wheat futures up 0.22% at 557 cents per bushel.
4. Most basic metals in London closed lower, with LME copper down 0.92% at $8,962.5 per ton, LME zinc up 1.49% at $3,065 per ton, LME nickel down 1.38% at $15,980 per ton, LME aluminum down 1.62% at $2,609 per ton, LME tin down 0.12% at $28,940 per ton, and LME lead down 0.94% at $2,010 per ton.
5. Domestic commodity futures night trading closed mixed, with most energy and chemical products rising, fuel oil up 1.6%, asphalt up 1.3%, and crude oil down 0.92%. Most black series products fell, with coking coal down 2.16% and coke down 1.3%. Most agricultural products rose. Most base metals closed lower, with stainless steel down 1.44%, nickel down 1.21%, aluminum oxide down 1%, copper down 0.14%, lead up 0.23%, and zinc up 1.61%. Gold down 0.52%, silver down 0.05%.
Black series hot news
1. According to SMM, Hebei Zongheng Group Fengnan Steel began maintenance on a 1450mm hot-rolled production line on November 23, expected to last 8 days, affecting hot coil production by approximately 8,200 tons per day; Hebei Donghai Special Steel started maintenance on a 1450mm hot-rolled production line on November 26, expected to last 15 days, affecting hot coil production by approximately 8,200 tons per day.
2. According to Mysteel, Lian Steel will stop production for maintenance on Blast Furnace No. 8 starting December 15, expected to last 25 days. From December 14 to December 31, two hot-rolled lines will be alternately maintained, affecting steel production by an average of 10,000 tons per day.
3. According to SMM research, as of November 26, 2024, the coke inventory at the two ports was 1.245 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 8,000 tons, an increase of 0.65%.
Agricultural products hot news
1. A report released by the Brazil Sugarcane Technology Center (CTC) shows that, on average, the yield per hectare of sugarcane in Brazil's central-south region in October decreased by 20% compared to the same period last year, falling from 77.4 tons per hectare last year to 61.7 tons per hectare this year. Cumulative data analysis shows that as of October 2024, the yield per hectare of sugarcane in Brazil's central-south region was 80.0 tons, while the average level over the past decade was 79.7 tons.
2. According to shipping survey agency SGS, it is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil export volume from November 1-25 will be 988,722 tons, a decrease of 9.31% compared to the 1,090,272 tons exported in the same period last month.
3. According to data from the China Grain and Oil Business Network, as of the end of week 47 (November 23), the soybean processing rate of major soybean oil factories in China showed a slight increase compared to last week, with an average processing rate of 52.36%, up from 52.35% last week. The expected soybean processing volume for this week is 2.0363 million tons, with a processing rate of 52.13%.
4. According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia's palm oil production from November 1-20 is estimated to decrease by 5.19%, with a decrease of 5.36% in Peninsular Malaysia, 4.3% in Sabah, 6.26% in Sarawak, and 4.91% in Eastern Malaysia.
5. According to Wind data, as of the week ending November 26, soybean oil port inventory recorded 1.03 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to 1.05 million tons in the week ending November 19.
6. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced a revision to the white sugar options contract and related rules, stating that this revision will take effect when the series of options contracts corresponding to the white sugar futures 2507 contract is listed for trading, which is at the start of trading on March 3, 2025 (the night session on February 28).
7. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) data shows that from November 1-25, 2024, Malaysia's palm oil yield per hectare decreased by 3.09%, and the oil extraction rate fell by 0.03%, with production down 3.24% month-on-month.
8. Consulting firm Datagro estimates that sugar production in Brazil's central-south region is expected to reach 42 million to 43.2 million tons in the 2025/26 season, up from 39.3 million tons in 2024/25, with sugarcane production estimated at 590 to 620 million tons for 2025/26, while the forecast for 2024/25 has been revised up to 602 million tons.
Energy and chemical hot news
1. According to the latest data from Longzhong Information, as of November 25, the weekly crude oil arrival volume at independent refineries in Shandong was 1.405 million tons, down by 634,000 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 31.09%; the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 943,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons week-on-week. The total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factories was 653,000 tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons week-on-week.
2. The Iranian Oil Minister stated on Tuesday that after identifying bottlenecks, the oil ministry successfully increased the production of raw natural gas. After extensive planning, the oil ministry successfully raised the average daily production of raw natural gas by more than 25 million cubic meters.
3. Citigroup stated that from a supply-demand balance perspective, OPEC+ has no room to reverse production cuts by 2025. The Permian Basin has sufficient geological capacity to support an increase of 2 to 3 million barrels of crude oil per day, meaning OPEC+ will need to adapt to this growth in the next 3 to 4 years to maintain oil prices.
4. Russian seaborne crude oil exports experienced the largest decline since July, with shipment volumes dropping to a two-month low due to a sharp decrease in crude oil volume flowing to major buyer India. As of November 24, the four-week average daily export volume decreased by approximately 150,000 barrels, marking the fourth decline in five weeks, despite a slight increase in weekly export volume compared to the previous seven days.
5. OPEC+ representatives stated that key OPEC+ member countries have started discussing delaying plans to restore oil production scheduled for next January, possibly for several months.
Metal hot news
1. JPMorgan maintains its long-term bullish outlook on gold, predicting that gold prices will rise to $3,000 per ounce next year; silver prices are expected to rise to $38 per ounce by the end of 2025. The rise in precious metals will continue; limited supply lays the foundation for rising base metal prices after 2025. It is forecasted that copper prices will rebound to around $10,400 per ton by Q4 2025.
2. The Hong Kong SAR government stated that the total export volume of gold to mainland China in October was 28.277 tons, compared to 16.588 tons in September. The net export volume of gold to mainland China in October was 15.414 tons, compared to 16.151 tons in September.
3. According to the China Securities Golden Bull, several banks, including Construction Bank, Ping An Bank, and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, have raised the risk levels of gold investment products this year. Additionally, several banks, including Bank of Communications, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank, have raised the minimum purchase point for accumulated gold, with adjustments ranging from 100 to 120 yuan, resulting in a new minimum purchase amount of 650 to 700 yuan.
Exaggerated 'Period' Talks - A Major Revelation of Trading Logic!
1. If the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon is reached, how will shipping in the future look?
Guangfa Futures analysis indicates that the expectation for a ceasefire in the Middle East is strong, the supply and demand fundamentals are relatively soft, and the airline's price increase behavior is about to end. Therefore, the current main contract for shipping in the European line is in a relatively weak position. If expectations for Red Sea re-navigation rise, there may be significant downward pressure. It is necessary to closely monitor changes in airline prices and the latest developments in geopolitical news. Due to the high volatility of European line varieties and the sensitivity of information, any sudden situation may cause market turbulence in the future. It is recommended that investors trade with more certainty after the ceasefire is realized, with the overall main contract for 02 primarily focusing on shorting at highs and controlling risks.
2. The fundamentals remain loose, and the price of industrial silicon may continue to be weak throughout the year?
New Lake Futures analysis indicates that the main industrial silicon contract fell sharply yesterday, largely due to a significant reduction in production in the downstream polysilicon industry. Since last month, after the photovoltaic industry's self-regulation initiative, many leading companies at various stages have started to reduce production, with November's silicon wafer production repeatedly adjusted downward and silicon material demand continuing to shrink. Currently, the fundamentals of industrial silicon remain loose, supply remains strong, while demand is tightening overall. The supply side is increasing in the north and decreasing in the south; although there is significant production reduction in the southwest region, high production levels are maintained in the northwest, and new capacity is being released in North China. In addition, industrial silicon inventories are high, and industry inventories continue to accumulate. At the end of the month, industrial silicon warehouse receipts will face concentrated cancellation, and the December contract will begin to implement new delivery standards, with old warehouse receipts entering the market continuing to put pressure on spot prices. Overall, industrial silicon prices are expected to remain weak throughout the year, and it is recommended to continue holding short positions.
Today's important futures data and event overview
1. On November 27 at 21:30, the revised annualized quarterly GDP for the U.S. third quarter will be released. Preliminary data released previously indicated that the annualized quarterly GDP for the U.S. third quarter grew by 2.8%, up from a growth of 3% in the previous quarter. Recent U.S. economic performance has been strong, and attention is on whether the U.S. Department of Commerce will raise the annualized quarterly GDP.
2. On November 27 at 23:30, the U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year for October will be released. The core PCE price index year-on-year for September recorded 2.7%, unchanged from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, rebounding from last month (0.2%). The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year continues to approach the Fed's 2% target, supporting the Fed's slowing pace of rate cuts after the first significant cut. Attention will be on the results of this data release; if the core PCE price index year-on-year shows further reduction, it may delay the Fed's pace of rate cuts.
Article forwarded from: Jin Ten Data
