Today's review of BTC will begin with the higher time frames and past posts specifically about the higher time frames. Correction - another indicator that higher time frames dictate, even during a bull run. Although we expected a test of 100,000$ in recent days and even a move slightly above - the testing of the signals has begun. Neither the remaining unclosed gap on CME nor the quickly 'sticking' liquidity of the bears are obstacles. They only confused the picture at the moment.
The testing of the signals from the higher time frames, which were mentioned on Sunday, November 24, has begun:
"The picture on the higher time frames is generally a combo of ripe signals for correction:
- 12-hour time frame - for Friday-Saturday signals of a potential high,
- daily time frame - today an additional signal of a potential high and a bearish (for now) candle,
- two-day time frame - the last Strong signal of a potential high,
- weekly time frame - the last Strong signal of a potential high."
The probability that the price is working through all of this and entered a range/correction without testing 100,000$ on the spot after the movements of the last 24 hours is not just high, but enormous. But I suppose everyone has understood this by now. Before going through past posts - a few strategic theses:
- This drop is not the end of the BTC and ETH bull run, but an opportunity to buy before the main phase of growth.
- The key interest in potential growth represents altcoins, many of which, like ETH, have transitioned into a stable upward trend on the weekly time frame and are now offering discounts. It's a cliché, but there's no other way to say it, because we do not expect a breakdown of the weekly signals of a stable upward trend for altcoins.
Now to the posts on higher time frames, which were written in the analysis of #BTC purely based on the indicator. We will analyze where we were right and where we weren't. In short - out of the two likely start dates for the correction/range, November 17 and 24, the second one played out. Meanwhile, it pulled the price higher than initially expected and broke the expectation of the range starting last time.
- November 13 (first forecast for the range, but we expected to see an upper range of 90,000-93,000$. The lower - 85,000$):
"As much as one would like to believe in the continuation of a powerful non-retraceable growth and the 'candles of God' - there are important signals. There is a possibility that somewhere for two weeks the #BTC rate will be stuck in a range. From November 17 or 24"
- November 20:
"In the perspective of the coming weeks - it remains important how the weekly candle closes. For now, the working version is also the same - the high of this week will become the peak for the near future. Due to the signals of a potential high on the weekly time frame."
- November 23:
"Considering the situation on the higher time frames - #BTC has only November 23 and 24 to confidently reach 100,000$. Or at most, Monday, November 25. Because next week is already the first of the range weeks that we are expecting. Reversal signals on the weekly, two-day time frames, and also a Strong signal. We expect a range for several weeks and assume that its lower level could well be the substantial level of 84,737$. Entering such a wide range for us will become a correction below the substantial level of 91,306$."
How November 25 showed itself - we all saw. On the daily time frame, a descending candlestick structure started briskly. And until it changes to an ascending one - our expectation for the maximum target based on substantial levels is 84,737$. For now, the price is 92,100$. Intermediate targets from which an early reversal is possible:
- 92,226$ (already broken),
- 91,766$
- 91,306$ (very important as support),
- 90,564$
- 89,365$
- 87,684$.
There is a lot of liquidity at the bottom, we won't guess about reversal levels. We will see when the price returns to a stable upward trend on the hourly time frame and when the candlestick structure of the daily time frame comes to a reversal. Until then, the testing of the correction targets based on the indicator remains a priority.