Many old players and veteran investors feel that the bull market style of 2024 is vastly different and not as challenging as that of 2021. It's difficult due to the lack of original narrative creation, the absence of new investors entering the market, the presence of high FDV projects harvesting, and the long-cherished dream of mass adoption that still has no progress...
However, as Dickens said, 'It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.' The riddle of wealth is often written on the riddle's surface.
Following Trump's bull market
The moment Bitcoin passed through the ETF, crypto assets seemingly became a market dominated by the West. Almost all significant benefits and narrative innovations in this round have come from Western capital, whether it's SocialFi, DePIN, or Restaking. In this 'most challenging bull market in history', one can switch to Easy mode by simply following Trump and Western concepts.
Trump's beneficial meme
BTC
After Trump took office, BTC was the first to charge ahead. Given the grandeur of 2021, many old players still hope to replicate the previous Alt season, while new players indulge in the fantasy of 'going all-in on altcoins and lying down for a wealth dream'. However, in this bull market, as long as one holds BTC well, the returns have long outpaced a portfolio full of altcoins.
Since the beginning of the year, BTC has risen from 40k to around 98k, achieving over 200% returns. The only sectors that outperformed BTC during the same period are the meme sector and some mainstream public chain tokens (e.g., SOL, SUI), while most altcoins have not shown much price difference from the beginning of the year.
Before the election, Trump has been publicly promoting BTC. At the Bitcoin 2024 conference held in Nashville, Trump appeared and delivered nearly an hour-long speech, claiming he 'would fire the SEC chairman' and that 'you should never sell your Bitcoin'. He also announced plans to establish a national strategic reserve for Bitcoin and ensure that the US would become a global crypto center and Bitcoin superpower. After Trump was elected, the various favorable policies and positive commitments regarding Bitcoin are quite rare in the global capital market. With Trump's support, BTC broke through the long-held resistance at the 70k mark with brute force, achieving a 40% increase in a short period.
Besides the ETF, the national strategic reserve and Bitcoin superpower have become BTC's biggest narratives.
DOGE
Dogecoin, as the ancestor of meme coins, has a deep connection with Musk and Trump. In April 2019, Musk stated on Twitter that Dogecoin was his favorite cryptocurrency, claiming that Dogecoin was 'cool'. In the Saturday Night Live program in May 2021, Musk referred to himself as the 'Dogefather' and called Dogecoin 'the people's cryptocurrency'. Over time, Musk has gradually become deeply associated with Dogecoin, even becoming the spokesperson for Dogecoin's image in public perception. To this day, DOGE has experienced four rounds of bull and bear cycles but still firmly holds its position among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap.
Most people adhere to the beliefs of 'too large a market cap cannot be moved' and 'buy new, not old', and have not valued DOGE. However, after DOGE launched, it directly entered into an independent market, stunning everyone with its 'rise to fame'. It quadrupled over the past year and doubled in the past month, heading straight for 1 dollar per coin.
PEPE
Pepe's name comes from the character Pepe the Frog created by American cartoonist Matt Furie, who first appeared in his work 'Boy's Club'. This character won affection for its cute image and funny expressions, gaining some attention on the internet. Pepe the Frog first appeared in a comic in 2005 and later became a widely known meme in internet culture. The Pepe coin was issued on Ethereum in April 2023, and after nearly a year of washout, it began to surge in February this year. Since then, it has fluctuated around a market cap of several billion dollars.
Pepe, as a meme popular in the West, went live on Robinhood and Coinbase after being dormant for half a year. Robinhood, as the largest stock trading platform in the US, previously only had DOGE and SHIB as memecoins, and the launch of PEPE indicates the importance of PEPE in the US market. This represents another significant benefit for the development of PEPE in the US market, directly leading to a 50% surge in PEPE, briefly breaking the 10 billion mark.
WIF
In late December 2019, images of various logos and graphics added to beanies became popular as profile pictures among esports organizations and celebrities on Twitter. WIF stands for dogwifhat, inspired by the meme ancestor 'DOGE', and also features the viral beanie characteristic.
WIF has a similar trajectory to PEPE and can be regarded as PEPE's junior. On November 14, Coinbase listed dogwifhat (WIF), with a daily increase of over 30%, approaching previous highs. In addition to being already listed on Coinbase, Robinhood also listed WIF on November 25, making WIF the first Solana memecoin to go live on Robinhood.
PNUT
PNUT is the most frequently called animal meme by Musk in this cycle besides DOGE.
The squirrel image of PNUT comes from a squirrel named Peanut adopted by an engineer named Mark seven years ago. Mark often shared videos of interactions with Peanut on Instagram, gradually gaining hundreds of thousands of followers. However, nearby residents complained to the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) that Peanut carried infectious diseases. Curiously, the DEC entered Mark Longo's home without a search warrant and took Peanut away. Consequently, Mark Longo initiated a petition on social media, with tens of thousands of fans signing it. Unfortunately, Peanut was ultimately euthanized by the DEC.
After Peanut was euthanized, Dogecoin published a statement condemning the Democrats, and Musk also mourned Pnut in a statement, claiming that Trump's election would save Peanut. The animal image represented by Peanut is not just a viral meme; it has started to layer on a buff with 'Trump' political color.
Due to the rapid surge in PNUT, many retail investors began 'flipping the car', leading to a long 9-day washout. PNUT today has stabilized at a small level and shows signs of a pullback.
In my previous article series 'Bull Market Bottom Fishing', I provided a detailed narrative analysis of PNUT (why $PNUT is the biggest alpha in this round? | Bull Market Bottom Fishing List), and the explanation given in the article is precisely why PNUT can consistently stay above 1 billion dollars, while most memecoins cannot break the 1 billion hard ceiling.
In addition to these memes, there's also DOGE, which is highly related to Musk (for the new government departments established by Musk after Trump's election), and Banana (the logo on Musk's rocket). For explanations about DOGE, you can refer to my previous articles: (How did 50 billion DOGE allow Musk to enter the new US government departments?)
Trump's beneficial enterprises
People often rely on historical experiences from past bull markets and follow the pattern: the usual investment logic is the 'pyramid cup' logic: BTC leads, funds overflow to mainstream coins like ETH, and then overflow again to lower market cap altcoins, ushering in the 'altcoin season'. In this round, under the 'BTC bull market' in the US, the market has belatedly discovered that there seems to be no altcoin season. 'BTC has always led, and the funds have never overflowed.'
However, the altcoin season has not disappeared; it has taken a different form: the funds that overflowed after BTC led the market have been directed to Bitcoin-related US stocks.
COIN
COIN is the stock of Coinbase, which achieved an 800% increase this year. Before the election, Coinbase's stock price continued to rise due to the arrival of the crypto bull market. Although COIN saw a pullback mid-year, the stock price of Coinbase rose by 31% on November 6, 2024, due to election results, increasing from $193.96 to $254.31. Investing in COIN is equivalent to investing in the beta of 'American crypto assets'; any positive news regarding crypto assets is almost absorbed by COIN's stock price.
Except for COIN, other crypto-related US stocks have a strong push effect.
MSTR
MicroStrategy itself is a company that makes business intelligence software, but in 2020, it started the strategy of 'issuing bonds to buy coins'. As of now, MicroStrategy holds 1.2% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin, making it the publicly listed company with the largest Bitcoin holdings globally. MicroStrategy's stock price skyrocketed by 1000% within a year, far exceeding Bitcoin's returns.
MicroStrategy's strategy of issuing bonds to buy coins has caused many to worry that MSTR is the next LUNA, but in fact, MicroStrategy's safety is much better than LUNA. Moreover, its recent repayment period is in 2027, which is still far from us.
Besides companies like MicroStrategy, which rely on Bitcoin, many 'small-cap' companies have also begun to emulate MicroStrategy's strategy. For example, the fitness equipment company Interactive Strength (TRNR) announced plans to purchase up to $5 million worth of Bitcoin after its board approved using cryptocurrency as a treasury reserve asset. After the announcement, the company's stock price surged over 80%. Similarly, 'small-cap' companies such as LQR House (LQR), Cosmos Health (COSM), Nano Labs (NA), Gaxos (GXAI), Solidion Technology (STI), and Genius Group (GNS) also saw temporary surges in stock prices after announcing Bitcoin treasury plans in November.
Western concept public chains
Besides coins closely related to Trump, the election of this Bitcoin president is a significant boon for all crypto projects rooted in the West. Not only will regulatory conditions for crypto assets loosen in the US, but it will also facilitate traditional financial capital to flow into crypto assets. Among the coins listed on Coinbase, the first traditional US broker to access besides BTC and ETH includes ADA, BCH, DOT, XRP, etc. Similarly, when the flood comes, the water will only go to the bigger pots.
SOL
Solana, as one of the high-performance public chains that challenged Ethereum in the previous cycle, seems to have 'partially' replaced Ethereum's position in the crypto ecosystem this round. In the previous cycle, Solana rode the wave of FTX and thrived; however, after FTX's collapse, Solana became the target of widespread FUD, hitting a low of only 11 dollars. Since September 2023, Solana has experienced a trend of its own. Over the course of a year, Solana has become the true meme public chain of the entire Crypto ecosystem due to its high performance and low GAS fees, forming a unique gameplay centered around memes, successfully breaking through 200 dollars and once again challenging previous highs.
XRP
XRP was deeply mired in legal disputes with the SEC and regulatory mud at the beginning of this cycle. In December 2020, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Ripple Labs, accusing it of conducting an unregistered securities offering by selling XRP. The SEC believes that XRP meets the criteria for securities and therefore needs to be registered and comply with federal securities laws. Due to the SEC's lawsuit and the regulatory uncertainty surrounding XRP classification, several cryptocurrency exchanges, including Coinbase, delisted XRP. On August 7, 2023, the court made a final ruling requiring Ripple to pay a civil penalty of $125.0351 million and prohibited the company from further violating (securities laws).
Ripple's CEO claimed on FOX News that the XRP ETF will be launched in 2025.
However, after Trump took office, XRP not only swept away the shadows of previous regulatory issues but also several institutions began to apply for XRP ETFs.
In early October, Bitwise and Canary Capital submitted applications for XRP ETFs to the SEC. On November 2, 21Shares submitted the application for the XRP ETF '21Shares Core XRP TRUST' to the US SEC, joining the ranks of those seeking approval for XRP ETFs. On November 25, WisdomTree Funds submitted a fund registration application named 'WisdomTree XRP Fund' in Delaware and prepared to submit an S-1 registration to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Although the SEC has not yet approved any ETF, once Trump officially takes office, crypto asset ETFs may be approved in batches.
UNI
Uniswap, as the ace application of Crypto, has become many people's 'first stop on the chain'. Even today, it remains the highest revenue-generating Dapp. It occupies 50% of the trading volume among all DEXs and has consistently held the top position in DEXs. However, UNI is not in most people's portfolios, mainly because 'the market cap of 7 billion is too large, with no profit effect' and 'UNI is an air coin, with no practical use'.
Uniswap's potential is not limited to being the leading DEX. In October this year, Uniswap announced the launch of Unichain, specifically designed for DeFi (What projects can rush in with the hurried launch of Unichain?). Meanwhile, the biggest benefit of the UNI token has yet to be released. As the largest DEX in Crypto, SEC has been sharpening its knives, wanting to collect protection fees. On April 10 of this year, the SEC issued a warning to Uniswap, planning to take enforcement action against the company. The core controversy is whether the UNI token, if it wants to empower by distributing Uniswap's fees to token holders, would conflict with (securities law). If Trump takes office, UNI will not be subject to regulatory restrictions. Its 'dividend' nature could elevate UNI to new heights.
BASE
Base is a Layer 2 launched by Coinbase. Although it has not yet issued tokens, the fundamentals of Base far exceed those of other L2s. Not only is the trading experience smoother than the mainnet, but many original narratives have also emerged on Base, such as a multitude of SocialFi projects. In the meme sector, Base is not to be outdone, beginning to snatch the 'AI meme' pie from Solana. Whether it’s VIRTUAL, which supports the bulk issuance of AI agents, or Pump.fun CLANKER on Base, the wave of AI has quietly surged on Base. I have previously summarized the targets in the Base AI ecosystem (What are the speculative targets quietly brewing a hundredfold opportunity in the Base ecosystem?). Among them, Clanker has already surpassed 100 million in market cap today, breaking many people's preconceived notions of the asset ceiling on the Base chain.
Similarly, there are 'old projects' like DOT and ADA that have too large a market cap and emerged too early.
Summary
In research and analysis, most people often fall into the psychological fallacy of 'I alone in the world', seeking out alpha that only a few people pay attention to.
From a young age, there has been too much noise around us: in traditional education, teachers often pay more attention to students who can solve problems using new methods; in martial arts novels, highly skilled monks often have their own 'unique skills'. Influenced by such social habits, when entering the market, one may also be affected by the 'I alone in the world' prisoner's dilemma.
Most ordinary traders look down upon these coins in the top 100 by market cap, or even the top 10 coins, and usually search for coins with market caps of several million to find 'opportunities for wealth'. Instead of spending so much energy tracking different sectors' alpha, it may be more cost-effective to study 'Trump' as this alpha.
