In the past week, BTC has continued to rise, breaking through $96,000, $97,000, $98,000, and $99,000 ATH. The market's attention to BTC has returned to a peak, eagerly anticipating BTC to break $100,000. Not only has the BTC Google search index risen sharply, but Microstrategy has also utilized its overallotment option, with its MSTR due in 2029 closing above $104 on the first trading day.
On the 23rd, after BTC broke the ATH of $99,588, the market struggled to maintain its upward momentum and fell to around $95,734. Although it rebounded to around $98,000, BTC entered a downward channel on the night of the 25th, reaching a low of $92,326.31, with a maximum drop of 6.5% within 24 hours. Currently, BTC price fluctuates around $93,000 (the above data is sourced from Binance spot, November 26, 17:00).
Although BTC has experienced the largest correction in nearly half a month, the crypto market has not reacted as violently as before. Not only did ETH not follow the decline, but most altcoins also did not enter a crash market, with some even showing slight gains. With Trump about to take office, BTC investors taking profits, and the complex leverage effect, BTC's volatility may further increase.
BTC technical indicators have entered a short-term overbought phase, with some long-term holders taking profits.
Since Trump's victory, BTC technical indicators have shown serious overbought conditions. Before this week, BTC was the only investment target in Trump's economy that had not seen profit-taking; as public FOMO sentiment intensifies, many long-term holders have chosen to cash out. Crypto Banter analyst Kyledoops pointed out that long-term BTC holders have sold 128,000 BTC, although BTC ETFs absorbed 90% of the selling pressure during the same period.
The market's FOMO sentiment is too high; BTC price retracement may benefit future market development.
Microstrategy has exercised its $400 million overallotment option based on $2.6 billion of convertible bonds (0% coupon, 55% premium), raising the final size to $3 billion. This batch of convertible bonds, due in 2029, closed above $104 on the first trading day.
At the same time, the market has quickly launched Microstrategy's leveraged ETFs (MSTX, MSTU), providing retail investors with more 'suboptimal' ways to leverage trade BTC spot. According to Bloomberg reports, the high demand for these leveraged ETFs has put pressure on the primary brokers responsible for securities lending, with the related asset management scale surging to nearly $5 billion in the past week.
Public opinion continues to boost the visibility of BTC, with prominent television commentators suddenly changing their stance to support cryptocurrencies and suggesting that investors can hold BTC at high points. Market FOMO further exacerbates recent market bubbles, leading to a significant increase in leverage at current market levels, resulting in a substantial rise in actual volatility.
Macroeconomic Interpretation
US economic indicators are strong, increasing the possibility of a soft landing for the economy.
Data shows that over $448 billion has flowed into the US stock market this year, breaking the record of 2021 and reaching unprecedented levels. At the same time, Nvidia's earnings report exceeded expectations, and the US stock market remains strong. The economic index has rebounded to strong levels seen in the first quarter, while inflation data has not yet broken upward. The high-income consumer index has hit a new high, and the consumption power of high-income groups in the US remains strong. From the data, the possibility of a soft landing for the US economy has increased.
The conflict between Lebanon and Israel may be nearing its end, causing risk-averse funds to withdraw.
The conflict between Lebanon and Israel is nearing its end, and risk-averse funds are leaving the market. Besides the cryptocurrency market, there has also been a significant drop in the overnight gold, crude oil, and other commodity markets. As of the night market close on November 25, London gold, London silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver have all fallen more than 3%.
CCTV News reported that on November 25 local time, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller mentioned during a briefing regarding the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel that the ceasefire agreement has 'not yet been reached.' The US believes that the gap between the negotiating parties' differing opinions on the ceasefire agreement has 'greatly narrowed,' but that some measures still need to be taken to facilitate its achievement. The US is pushing for negotiations 'as much as possible.'
On the local time of the 25th, Lebanese MTV reported exclusive news that the Lebanese side has received a ceasefire notice from Lebanon and Israel, which will be announced tomorrow night. According to the Israeli Times, Israel has in principle agreed to a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah under the support of the United States.
Trump's tariff remarks have caused a huge shock in the foreign exchange market.
On the local time of the 25th, Trump announced that he would impose a 25% tariff on all products entering the US from Mexico and Canada. Following the announcement, the currencies of Canada and Mexico against the US dollar fell by more than 1%, exacerbating the volatility in the foreign exchange market, which has a daily trading volume of up to $7.5 trillion. Emerging market currencies generally weakened, with commodity currencies like the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar declining. Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region were also under pressure, declining across the board.
Market Recommendations
The current market FOMO remains, and it is recommended that investors remain rational in the absence of significant relief from the overbought state. They should properly allocate assets while ensuring that risk control is in place, capturing profits while further avoiding risks. Meanwhile, considering Trump's past use of social media to directly convey unfiltered thoughts and policy intentions, the market will be filled with speculation and contradictory trading ideas, making it very important to maintain flexibility in asset allocation.
As a global leading one-stop crypto financial service platform, Matrixport provides users with a variety of asset management products, including dual currency investments, snowball products, shark fin, trend smart earnings, seagull, and installment purchases, among other structured products; quantitative strategies, passive strategies, and other strategy investments. These products support multi-currency investments and offer a wide range of investment periods.
Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may carry significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.
