Author: Oupeng
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has seen renewed volatility, especially the price performance of low market cap projects is notable. Today, we focus on NOT/USDT, combining 4-hour and daily level technical indicators to interpret potential opportunities and risks.
I. 4-hour chart: Bullish signal for the short-term trend
From the 4-hour chart, we can see that NOT is demonstrating strong rebound momentum in the short term:
Moving average system: The price has broken through MA20 and MA60, and is far from MA120 (purple line). The short-term moving averages show a bullish arrangement, which is usually an initial confirmation signal of an upward trend.
The upward angles of MA20 (yellow) and MA60 (blue) are clear, indicating that bullish forces dominate the short-term market.
Increased trading volume: When the price breaks around 0.008, the trading volume significantly increases, showing that the main funds have a clear intention to push the price up. At the same time, the volume's support verifies the effectiveness of the breakout, which is an important basis for the short-term bullish outlook.
MACD indicator: After the MACD golden cross forms, the momentum bars gradually enlarge, reflecting strong buying power in the market. However, it should be noted that the momentum bars have shown slight signs of contraction after a continuous increase, indicating that there may be a need for some adjustments in the short term.
Short-term view: If the price can stabilize around the support at 0.0085 (near MA20), it is expected to further challenge the resistance at 0.0095-0.010 in the short term. However, if it breaks below 0.0085, one should pay attention to the effectiveness of the MA60 (0.0077) support.
II. Daily chart: Signs of stabilization in the medium-term trend
The daily chart provides a more macro perspective, from which we can see:
Bottom rebound signal: The price stabilizes around 0.007 and forms consecutive bullish candles breaking above MA20 and MA60. Especially as MA20 turns upward, this indicates that the downtrend may be reversed.
Medium to long-term moving average pressure: Although the short-term breakout is significant, MA120 (0.0085) still exerts a certain pressure on the price. Only a volume breakout above this level can confirm the complete victory of the medium-term bulls.
Volume performance: The current rebound is accompanied by a moderate increase in trading volume, but overall volume remains relatively low. This indicates that market sentiment is recovering, but participants have not yet fully activated. If the upcoming increase can be accompanied by a larger scale of volume, the bulls may push the price towards the previous high (0.011) region.
MACD indicator: The daily MACD has formed a golden cross, and the momentum bars are gradually turning red. This is an important signal for medium-term bullishness, but the current absolute value of the momentum bars is relatively small, indicating that bullish forces are still in the testing phase.
Medium-term view: If the price can steadily stay above 0.0085 and break through 0.0095 with accompanying volume, NOT may start a new round of upward targets, with an initial target in the 0.011-0.012 range. Conversely, if it falls back below 0.008, one must be wary of the risk of a false breakout.
III. Comprehensive analysis and operational strategy
Combining the 4-hour and daily level analysis, NOT/USDT is currently in the 'early stage of trend reversal', with the specific operational strategies as follows:
Short-term traders: You can try to enter when the price retraces to the 0.0085-0.0087 area, targeting around 0.0095-0.010, with a stop loss set below 0.0082.
Medium to long-term planners: It is recommended to wait for the price to break above 0.0095 before adding positions or establishing new ones, confirming the breakout with a target set in the 0.011-0.012 region.
Risk control advice: Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; it is crucial to control position sizes when trading, strictly implement stop-loss strategies, and avoid losses due to significant retracements.
IV. Market sentiment
From the current market sentiment, NOT's rebound trend is supported by both fundamentals and technicals. However, 'rapid surges' in the crypto market are often accompanied by high volatility and retracement risks. Investors should be especially cautious:
False breakout: Low market cap coins are easily manipulated by major funds. If the trading volume does not continue to increase, the sustainability of the breakout is questionable.
Macroeconomic influences: Recent changes in global economic data (such as Federal Reserve policies, CPI data) may have a significant impact on market risk appetite and should be closely monitored.
NOT/USDT currently shows a pattern of short-term bullishness and medium-term testing.
From a technical perspective, the trend reversal signal after breaking key moving averages is relatively clear, but it is still necessary to continuously monitor changes in volume and fluctuations in market sentiment.
“Trend is our dearest friend”