$BTC

Current market background

From BTC's 4-hour chart, it can be seen that after a significant increase in price recently, a phase adjustment has occurred. The market is currently in an important stage of bullish and bearish competition, and the short-term technical patterns and moving average positions are crucial for the subsequent trend judgment.

Technical analysis

1. The important role of moving averages (MA)

  • MA20 (yellow)
    The MA20 moving average is currently running around 94700. After the BTC price rapidly broke below this moving average, it attempted to regain but encountered resistance. This indicates that the short-term market is still dominated by weakness, and bulls have not effectively controlled the situation.

  • MA60 (blue)
    Current price is supported near the MA60 moving average, the strength of this moving average’s support is crucial for the market. If the MA60 (around 94600) is broken, it may lead to further deterioration of market sentiment.

  • MA120 (purple)
    The MA120 moving average is at a lower position (around 88500), which is a stronger mid-term support. If the market cannot stabilize near the MA60, it is very likely to retrace to the MA120 area.

2. Volume guidance

Recent trading volume shows that bulls have increased their strength when attempting to rebound, but it has not significantly exceeded the trading volume during the prior decline. This indicates that bullish confidence at the current price level is still lacking, failing to attract more capital.

3. MACD indicator

  • Trend interpretation
    The MACD indicator continues to show a death cross signal, and the green histogram is shortening, indicating a weakening bearish force. If a golden cross appears subsequently, it may trigger a short-term rebound.

  • Key positions
    The current MACD line is near the zero axis, indicating that the market has not completely escaped weakness. Pay attention to the subsequent turning point of the MACD line and the change in histogram color.

Key support and resistance

  • Support level:

    • First support: MA60 moving average (around 94600), if this point is broken, it may lead to further decline.

    • Second support: MA120 moving average (around 88500), strong mid-term support.

  • Resistance level:

    • First resistance: MA20 moving average (around 94700), a breakout with increased volume is needed to restore the short-term upward trend.

    • Second resistance: Recent high point around 99500, which is the target area for a short-term bullish rebound.

Comprehensive view: Divergence between bulls and bears, short-term trend yet to be confirmed

From a technical perspective, BTC shows a typical oscillation trend after a correction on the 4-hour level. In the short term, bulls need to break through the MA20 moving average with increased volume to regain upward momentum. Otherwise, if it breaks below the MA60 moving average, the market may further test the MA120 moving average or even lower support levels.

Strategy suggestion:

  • Bullish strategy:
    Observe stabilization signals at the MA60 moving average (around 94600), or wait for the price to break through the MA20 moving average before going long, targeting around 99500.

  • Bearish strategy:
    If the price breaks below the MA60 and continues to increase in volume, consider going short, targeting the MA120 support level (around 88500).

Market reminder:

Bitcoin shows significant uncertainty at the current price level, it is recommended that investors consider news factors such as Federal Reserve policy, market capital flow, etc., and make comprehensive judgments before taking action.