I. Based on data analysis from the chart, I estimate the likelihood of DOGE facing significant sell-off in the short term to be around 65-70% for the following reasons:
1. Analyze technical indicators:
- RSI is at a very low range (31.68) indicating selling pressure dominates
- The price chart has broken many important support levels
- Clear downtrend with a total decline of more than 7%
2. Current selling pressure:
- The sell/buy ratio on large orders is 71.17M/42.85M (almost 1.7 times)
- Total selling volume is exceeding (157.79M compared to 111.25M)
- Continuous negative net cash flow and increasing trend
3. Factors reducing the likelihood of a negative scenario (30-35%):
- DOGE has fallen quite a lot, buying pressure may appear
- The crypto market often has unexpected volatility
- There may be sudden positive news impacting prices
However, this is just a prediction based on available data. The crypto market is very difficult to predict accurately. Investors should:
- Should not all-in on a single order
- Set a reasonable stop loss
- Allocate investment capital wisely
- Closely monitor market developments over the next 24-48h
II. Based on the data and analysis, I can outline 3 main scenarios that could occur:
1. Worst-case scenario
- Price continues to drop significantly to the 0.38-0.39 USDT range
- Characteristics:
- Selling volume spikes > 200M DOGE
- Cash flow turns deeper negative -700M
- Large sell orders increase > 100M DOGE
- RSI drops to the 20-25 range
- Possible reasons:
- "Whales" are collectively selling
- Negative news about DOGE/crypto market
- Margin call pressure from leveraged positions
2. Base scenario
- Price sideways in the 0.41-0.43 USDT range
- Characteristics:
- Trading volume remains at 100-150M DOGE
- Cash flow fluctuates from -300M to -500M
- The buy/sell ratio is gradually balancing
- RSI recovers to the 35-40 range
- Developments:
- May retest the support level 0.41 several times
- Buying pressure appears when the price drops significantly
- The market needs time to accumulate
3. Positive scenario
- Price recovers to the 0.44-0.45 USDT range
- Characteristics:
- Buying volume exceeds 150M DOGE
- Cash flow turns positive
- Large buying orders increase significantly
- RSI recovers above 40
- Possible catalysts:
- Unexpected positive news
- "Whales" buy at low price levels
- General recovery of the crypto market
III. Recommendations for investors:
1. For traders:
- Set stop loss at 0.40 USDT
- Take profit partially if price recovers > 0.44 USDT
- Should not all-in on a single order
- Monitor trading volume to assess trends
2. For long-term investors:
- May consider DCA (dollar-cost averaging) if price drops significantly
- Allocate capital in multiple parts
- Maintain reasonable DOGE allocation in the portfolio
3. Key levels to monitor:
- Support levels: 0.41, 0.39, 0.38 USDT
- Resistance levels: 0.44, 0.45, 0.47 USDT
- Trading volume and cash flow in 24h
- News and general developments of the crypto market
Note: This is just an analysis based on available data. The crypto market is highly volatile and hard to predict accurately. Investors need to conduct their own research and make decisions that align with their strategy.
