Original title: (XRP leads the rise, old-line currencies recover: a signal of the return of the alt season?)
Original author: Chandler, Foresight News
The price of Bitcoin has repeatedly hit new highs, breaking through the $99,000 mark, driving the activity of the entire cryptocurrency market. Old-brand altcoins have also emerged one after another, among which Ripple (XRP) has performed particularly well. According to Bitget market data, on November 22, XRP broke through 1.4 USDT and is now quoted at 1.416 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of more than 30%.
Compared to the booming Meme market, the old-line altcoins seem to be rising quietly. Although they are not as eye-catching as Meme coins, they are accumulating market attention with their steady growth.
According to Kaiko data, as of November 18, the weekly trading volume of altcoins soared to more than US$300 billion for the first time since 2021. Among them, the trading volume of the four major tokens DOGE, XRP, SOL and PEPE accounted for 60% of the total trading volume.
Since November, XRP has quietly risen from around $0.5 to a high of $1.435, an increase of 182.4%, a three-year high; ADA has risen from $0.33 to $0.9, an increase of nearly 170% this month; XLM has risen from $0.09 to $0.294, an increase of more than 220%, etc. These signs seem to show that the old altcoins are gradually getting rid of the downturn and reshaping their position in the market with actual performance.
If this trend continues, with the recovery of established currencies and the activeness of hot tokens intertwined, the market may usher in a more extensive "altcoin season" in the future.
Gary Gensler officially announced that he will step down soon, and years of litigation may end
There are multiple factors behind the recent strong rise of XRP. The change in market sentiment is undoubtedly the most direct driving force.
On July 13, 2023, Ripple won a partial victory when the court determined that XRP sales on digital trading platforms were not considered securities. However, the court determined that XRP sold by Ripple to institutional investors were unregistered securities. In addition, the court ruled that Garlinghouse and Larsen's personal XRP sales did not constitute violations. On August 7, 2023, the court issued a final judgment requiring Ripple to pay a civil penalty of $125,035.1 million and prohibiting the company from further violations (of the Securities Act).
On October 3, the U.S. SEC said it was appealing the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals’ previous ruling on Web3 payment company Ripple. An SEC spokesperson believed that “the district court’s ruling in the Ripple case conflicts with decades of Supreme Court precedent and securities laws, and we look forward to stating our reasons in the Second Circuit.”
But with Trump's election victory, this regulation may be eased.
On November 22, according to the official website of the U.S. SEC, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler will officially step down on January 20, 2025. The market has begun to have high expectations for changes in the future regulatory environment, and lawsuits against companies such as Ripple may be softened, settled, or even withdrawn.
Gary's long-term harsh regulation of the crypto industry, especially Ripple, has put XRP in a double dilemma in the law and the market. Today, this regulatory stance may show signs of loosening, giving the market an opportunity to re-examine the value of XRP.
From the data point of view, according to CoinGlass data, the open interest (OI) of XRP futures contracts has reached nearly 2.44 billion US dollars, a record high. This data reflects that the market's speculative enthusiasm for XRP has reached an unprecedented height. Open interest refers to the total amount of active futures or options contracts that have not been closed and settled, and is usually regarded as an important indicator of market activity and trading enthusiasm.
Institutions are competing to invest in ETFs
In addition to regulatory easing, multiple institutions have also begun applying for XRP ETFs.
On October 2, a Bitwise spokesperson confirmed that Bitwise submitted an application for an XRP ETF, which has been officially submitted on the Delaware government website. According to the S-1 registration document submitted to the US SEC for its XRP ETF, the XRP custodian will mainly use cold storage to store the trust's assets, and transfer a limited amount of assets to hot storage as needed to achieve efficient basket creation and redemption.
A week later, cryptocurrency investment institution Canary Capital submitted an application for registration of the XRP spot ETF "Canary XRP ETF" to the US SEC. It plans to provide investors with an investment channel without directly holding XRP through ETFs, while using CME's CF Ripple Index as a price tracking benchmark. Its founder Steven McClurg said that positive changes in the regulatory environment and investors' demand for diversified crypto assets are the main reasons for this application.
On October 16, Grayscale Investments submitted an application to the U.S. SEC to convert its hybrid crypto fund Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) into an exchange-traded fund (ETF). As of September 30, the fund was mainly composed of Bitcoin, accounting for 74.7%, followed by Ethereum, accounting for about 18.55%, and the rest was composed of SOL, XRP and AVAX. The company has previously converted Bitcoin and Ethereum funds into ETFs.
On November 2, 21Shares submitted an application for the XRP ETF "21Shares Core XRP TRUST" to the US SEC.
These successive applications show that XRP's market position as a crypto asset is steadily recovering, reflecting the market's confidence in XRP's future potential. After Ripple's legal dispute with the SEC made phased progress, market concerns about the legality of XRP have eased. Against the backdrop of the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the wave of applications for XRP ETFs is undoubtedly an important signal that the industry is moving forward.
Is there hope for the return of altcoins?
The CMC Crypto Alt Season Index is a real-time indicator used to determine whether the current cryptocurrency market is in an altcoin-dominated season. The index is based on the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days, providing detailed charts and indicators to track market trends and altcoin market capitalization share.
Looking at the charts and index data, CMC’s Cryptocurrency Altcoin Quarterly Index currently stands at 27/100, indicating that the market is still primarily dominated by Bitcoin, with altcoins not quite moving into strong dominance yet. But the changing trends over the past seven days are worth watching. The Altcoin Seasonal Index gradually climbed from the lows on the 17th to a significant jump to 28 on the 21st, showing that market interest in altcoins is recovering.
Combined with historical data, although the current index is far below the annual high of 50, it has rebounded significantly from the low of 13 at the beginning of this month. This upward trend may mean that market funds are gradually rotating from mainstream assets such as Bitcoin to the altcoin sector. Especially against the background of the recent strong performance of old altcoins such as XRP and ADA, this trend may be further strengthened.
At the same time, the market value of altcoins has also been growing steadily. Although the growth rate has not yet reached a level sufficient to completely reverse the market pattern, its gradual stabilization and slight increase reflects the subtle changes in market sentiment. Investors have begun to re-evaluate the value of altcoins and gradually shifted their attention to these assets.
If this trend continues and remains steady in the coming weeks, perhaps the copycat season will officially arrive.
However, judging from the performance of the Top 100 over the past 90 days, Meme coin's market position will remain difficult to shake in the short term due to its high speculation and social driving force.
Original link
