Ethereum (ETH) has recently shown a significant box oscillation trend, but with the ongoing struggle between bulls and bears, the market gradually shows signs of a breakout. The following is a technical analysis of the current trend and subsequent strategy suggestions.
I. Current Trend Interpretation
1. 4-hour Level Trend:
After consecutive rises, ETH has recently faced resistance around 3389, leading to a slight pullback. From the candlestick pattern, the momentum for short-term upward movement has weakened, but the overall structure remains strong.
The previous high of 3450 is a key pressure level and an important testing area for short-term bulls.
The pullback adjustment at 3389 has not shown signs of breaking, thus bullish strength remains.
2. Weekly Level Trend:
The weekly chart shows that ETH may face the formation of a double-top pattern. Based on this pattern feature, two probabilities exist in the future:
Testing the previous high but not breaking: When approaching the 3450-3500 range, bulls and bears will compete again, and if it cannot break through, a pullback will occur.
False break of the previous high followed by a pullback: Bulls attempt to push upward, with a brief breakout, but are quickly suppressed by bears, forming a pattern of rising then falling.
Overall, the weekly structure leans towards strength, but it is still necessary to pay attention to signals of bullish and bearish turning points.
II. Key Technical Level Analysis
Upper Pressure Levels:
3440-3450 Range: A strong resistance for bulls in the short term, need to pay attention to the breakout situation.
3530-3550 Range: If broken, it may trigger a larger level of upward movement.
Lower Support Levels:
3380-3390 Range: Current oscillation adjustment support, if broken down, will test lower support.
3230 Support Level: This bottom conversion position is an important defensive area for bulls and a key position for medium-term bullish outlook.
III. Trend Outlook and Strategy Suggestions
1. Short-term Outlook:
ETH's short-term trend feedback is strong, and it is expected to continue attempting upward movement. However, if it approaches the pressure level of 3440-3450 without breaking through, it is necessary to guard against the risk of pullback.
The lower support at 3230 is crucial; if lost, it may trigger a deeper adjustment.
2. Strategy Suggestions:
Short Position Strategy:
If 3440 is not broken, it is recommended to short in the 3390-3410 range, targeting 80-120 points, with a stop-loss controlled above 3445.
Long Position Strategy:
If 3320 support holds, consider trying long positions in the 3340-3360 range, targeting 100-200 points, with a stop-loss set below 3300.
IV. Risk Warning
Box oscillation trend change risk:
The longer ETH's oscillation period, the higher the probability of a trend change, and the direction of the change may be unexpected. Dynamic judgment should be made in conjunction with trading volume, candlestick patterns, technical indicators, etc.
Contrarian Trading Position Control:
Short positions are contrarian operations, and strict stop-loss settings and reasonable position controls are necessary to avoid large losses from rapid market reversals.
Market Sentiment and Macro Influences:
Pay attention to the overall capital flow in the cryptocurrency market and the macroeconomic environment, such as fluctuations in the dollar index and changes in Federal Reserve policies that could impact the market.
V. Summary and Call to Action
ETH is currently at the end of its box oscillation period, with a strong short-term trend, but close attention must be paid to the signals of pressure level breakout and support level loss. Regardless of bullish or bearish operations, risk control should be the primary principle, and actions should be planned and executed. Follow us for more professional market analysis and real-time trading strategies!
