Let me reiterate the arguments for being bullish and my analysis:
1. The issuance of U is continuously increasing, with tens of billions added every week, providing a large amount of liquidity.
2. Institutions are continuously buying.
3. Whales are continuously buying, even those above 90,000.
4. New whales hold more than old whales, constituting a new fundamental, and perhaps the methods will change.
Personal analysis on the above points:
1. Issuing requires time; adding billions upon billions is far from enough. Perhaps maintaining this issuance speed, prices could support around 150,000 to 160,000 in six months. Currently, the market cap of stablecoins is 170 billion, with 5 billion issued weekly, which could double in about six months. In short, it all requires time. The U.S. interest rate cuts are also gradual, accompanied by balance sheet reductions, and the release of liquidity is limited.
2. Institutional buying does not represent the behavior of the main players; if leverage is used, they may still be harvested by the main players.
3. Similarly, whale buying does not represent the behavior of the main players; the main players can secretly offload to these whales through scattered addresses.
4. Regardless of how whales change, human nature does not change; as retail investors, they may still buy high and sell low. Even if new whales unite to control the market, they are still profit-driven and cannot ignore fundamentals to forcefully drive prices up.
In summary, before there is a significant improvement in the overall financial environment, it does not support a super bull market, it will never go back to that kind of situation 🤪
That’s all!
