This morning I read an article written by a senior trader, which resonated with me a lot. Here are some of my thoughts:

1. The author said that making money in trading depends on luck. Indeed, luck plays a large role in the short term, but if the cycle is extended, the influence of luck will become smaller and smaller after good luck and bad luck offset each other and return to the mean. In the end, making money depends on strength, not luck.

2. Making money in the long term depends on the positive expected value method and position management, not luck. The author pays too much attention to luck.

3. There are indeed special market conditions with high winning rates and high profit-loss ratios. For example, when there is a smooth one-sided market, making big money depends on seizing such a market, but such market conditions rarely require patience.

4. When you are proficient in the method to a certain level, you will know that some signals are your dream numbers at a glance, and there is a high probability that you will achieve a high win rate and a high profit and loss ratio.

5. Regarding position management, everyone’s situation is different, risk preferences are different, and standards are naturally different. Just find the one that suits you. I like position management that allows you to win by rushing and lose by shrinking.

6. The difference between a veteran and an expert is how they control their retracement. 7. The reason why a veteran did not become an expert is because they did not control their human weaknesses. The author cited the case of Livermore who made $100 million and then went bankrupt.

8. How much money you can make in a period of time is determined by the market. But no matter how much money you make, if there are loopholes and shortcomings in your cognition, you will lose it sooner or later. For traders who do not have loopholes and shortcomings in their cognition, the only thing that can defeat them is luck.

9. The one thousandth success rate of futures trading in the negative market should be real.

10. Most traders have entered a dead end of certainty. Uncertainty is the basis of the existence of the market. If the profit and loss ratio remains unchanged, the winning rate will not create an advantage. The only source of advantage is to cut losses and let profits run.

11. The control of human weaknesses is the ultimate proposition for traders. I personally believe that human nature will not be completely eradicated. How to solve it? First, formulate detailed and solidified rules to deal with risks and benefits according to your own characteristics, so that you can accept as few tests of human nature as possible. Second, strive to improve trading cognition. If you can't do it, it's because your cognition is not in place. Human nature is selfish, and cognition dominates behavior. There is no such thing as doing something that is obviously not good for you, such as carrying an order.

12. I think it is a false proposition that the author solves human weaknesses by studying Chinese classics. Cultivation exists in discovering oneself, reflecting on oneself and improving oneself in transactions and in life. When personal cultivation reaches a certain level, it will naturally be clear. Studying Chinese classics for the sake of cultivation will not play a big role. It can only serve as a starting point for discussion. However, reading more good books is one of the best ways to improve oneself. I have read the "Realm of Clarity" mentioned in the author's article and Hua Bin's thorough explanation of Sun Tzu's Art of War. They are indeed good books. Artificial market legislation is also mentioned in the book "Realm of Clarity".

13. People will indeed undergo major changes after doing trading for a long time. They will realize the mediocrity and insignificance of their own abilities, and understand that there are not many things we can decide. They will become humble and low-key, open-minded and pragmatic, gentle and friendly, tolerant and compromising, kind and compassionate.

14. Trading cognition is what determines the fate of trading. Methods, position management, and trading logic are just external manifestations of trading cognition. #交易所BTC储备量创2018年以来新低