David Einhorn, president of Greenlight Capital, said the election result was good for avoiding the political stability issues he worried about not long ago, but it would present a bigger problem for the economy as he expects Trump's second-term policies to bring higher inflation.

“We have increased our bets on inflation,” he said on Wednesday. “We expect another upward inflection point in inflation, the Trump administration’s proposed policy mix is ​​inflationary, and we’re going to see more of that in the next few years.”

Einhorn predicted that inflation could rise back to 3.5% to 4.5%, but would not return to the worst levels of 7% to 9% seen in the U.S. economy over the past 40 years.

The latest CPI data released on Wednesday showed that the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI in October was in line with market expectations, at 2.6%. The latest PPI data released on Thursday was also in line with expectations.

Einhorn’s concern stems from the fact that all the tax cuts Trump wants, even if he doesn’t pursue them all or Congress refuses to pass them all, will result in “a cascade of inflation” from the combination of a strong economy, wage growth and immigration policies that are inflationary (both in terms of cost and labor).

"I don't know how they're going to choose to respond," he said. "One view is to tolerate it and keep the economy as strong as possible. I really don't know how they're going to do that."

Einhorn said he is not pessimistic about U.S. stocks, even though he has recently spoken about how expensive he thinks the market is and sees himself as one of the last value investors in a "broken market." He compared himself to a maintenance man and revealed that he is betting on a beaten-down agricultural stock that he believes is one of the last bargains left in the market.

Nelson Peltz, CEO of Trian Partners and billionaire investor, said that while he was happy about Trump's victory and viewed the Harris administration as a disaster, the market's gains would not last and that extreme concentration in a small group of high-momentum stocks was a factor.

While Treasury yields have faced unexpected pressure in an environment of Federal Reserve rate cuts, Einhorn said the bond market has not yet begun to price in a "difficult Treasury yield situation," citing concerns he has about Trump's expansionary economic policies.

Anne Walsh, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, also mentioned this specific concern. She expects that U.S. Treasury yields will continue to be under pressure due to factors such as concerns about tax cuts and deficit spending, and the bond market will experience higher volatility than stocks, and this situation may continue for several years.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data