Market Interpretation
In the altcoin market, last night the inflow of funds into the Ethereum ETF reached a record of $295 million, which could be a signal that off-market funds feel that Bitcoin has risen too sharply and are starting to turn to chase Ethereum. Moreover, with the new administration, the SEC is expected to undergo major changes, and the Ethereum staking ETF should be released soon. Therefore, it's not a bad idea to lay out positions in advance. However, the secondary trend of Ethereum remains weak, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate fell below 0.038 today. I anticipate that only after Bitcoin enters a rising plateau will Ethereum gain momentum to chase. However, as the likelihood of other altcoin ETFs such as Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin being approved increases, Ethereum's competitive edge will weaken. At this stage, we cannot regard Ethereum as a stable cryptocurrency asset like Bitcoin; its leading position is facing challenges, and we can only see it as one of the mainstream public chains. Last night, the real big winner was $DOGE; the biggest beneficiary since the new administration took office is it. It has also benefited from being a favorite of Musk, the new Dogecoin department of the Trump administration, the ETF, and the meme-driven narrative, among several significant buffs. In the future, Dogecoin may also facilitate global payments. Most importantly, $DOGE has an unparalleled enduring narrative. Dogecoin was born in 2013, and in terms of consensus, it is even stronger than Ethereum. Musk will frequently mention it in the future. Unlike other projects that try to leverage Musk, Dogecoin is one he genuinely likes. This advantage means that $DOGE has the potential to reach a market cap of hundreds of billions. Currently, the most unfortunate assets are the ordinary altcoins on centralized exchanges (CEX). Large external capital only recognizes Bitcoin, while small investors within the circle only engage on-chain. CEX altcoins, being in the middle, are destined to become the big losers in this round. They can only passively wait for capital rotation and cannot actively participate in the game. Therefore, I personally believe that altcoins that have not moved yet can really consider switching positions.
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