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💥 【Exclusive Reveal】CICC Deep Analysis: After Trump's Election, the Interest Rate Trend Holds Hidden Secrets, and the Path to Rate Cuts May Come to a Sudden Halt!
Highlights from CICC Research Report
1. Interest Rate Trends After Trump's Election
CICC released a research report on January 8, indicating that after Trump was elected President of the United States, the risk of rising interest rates is significantly greater than the risk of falling rates. It is predicted that by mid-2025, U.S. inflation and economic data will gradually improve, leading to a potential halt in the pace of rate cuts.
2. Changes in Expectations for Rate Cut Paths
Market expectations for future rate cut paths are undergoing dramatic fluctuations, influenced by recent economic data, especially the election results. From a timing perspective, inflation and economic data are expected to rebound by mid-2025, which may prompt a gradual cessation of rate cut policies.
3. Predictions for Inflation and Rate Cut Magnitudes
CICC predicts that inflation will show a year-on-year increase in the fourth quarter of this year due to base effects, but driven by a decline in rents, the pressure for inflation and core inflation to fall in the first quarter of 2025 will be minimal. In terms of rate cut magnitude, CICC believes that a reduction to around 3.5% is a reasonable level and notes that a cut of 100 basis points may be an appropriate adjustment range.
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