Let's discuss hot topics:
First, let's talk about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision early this morning, which felt rather bland to me, the biggest takeaway being that it was quite boring.
First of all, this time the committee members unanimously decided to cut rates by 25 basis points, and the statement was also more mild: no longer emphasizing confidence in inflation, but stating progress has been made; the slowdown in job growth was instead described as a general easing in the market.
It is apparent that the Federal Reserve is also pondering: September's non-farm payroll was impressive, but the unemployment rate did not continue to rise, and October's CPI slightly exceeded expectations, so they dare not be too aggressive in their tone.
Powell's press conference had basically no new insights; it was the same old data-driven approach. Essentially, if the economy is good, reduce rates slowly, and if the economy is bad, reduce rates quickly. Classic 'flexible response'!
The most eye-catching moment was when someone asked Powell: 'What would you do if Trump asked you to resign?' Old Powell decisively responded: 'I wouldn't, and the law doesn't allow the president to fire me!' This answer is quite on point; the Federal Reserve Chair needs to have an independent stance, which also defends the credibility of the Federal Reserve.
That being said, if Trump were to take office, a battle between the two is inevitable; after all, Trump is known for being a rate cutter.
As for everyone's biggest concern about whether there will be another cut in December? Powell's forward guidance has lowered this time; if nothing unexpected happens, as long as inflation rebounds significantly, there should still be a cut in December. Although if Trump takes office and implements stimulus policies, it might bring some inflation expectations, the short-term impact should not be significant, and the path of rate cuts is likely to continue.
Back to the market, Bitcoin has been breaking new highs while simultaneously experiencing a massive short squeeze over the past two days. After all this turmoil, Bitcoin needs a break, which gives Ethereum a chance to shine.
On the other hand, ETH/BTC has begun to take a stronger route, with funds flowing from Bitcoin to Ethereum for two consecutive days, indicating a bit of a trend. Additionally, Ethereum's ETF has seen a net inflow of over 50 million USD for two consecutive days, reaching a recent high, and the market is somewhat explosive.
Bitcoin staged a strong surge early in the morning due to the Federal Reserve's rate cut, peaking at 76850 before a slight pullback. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones also reached new highs, but the Dow formed a 'doji star', indicating a bit of divergence.
The US dollar index has declined, prompting gold to rebound. Although this rate cut is favorable, expectations for future rate cuts have weakened. This wave is sweet in the short term, but in the medium term, it might gradually flatten out or even turn.
Looking at the trend:
In the past three days, Bitcoin has risen about 8.5%, and is currently consolidating in the upper area, showing an alternating trend of adjustment and rise.
I believe the probability of a significant short-term decline is quite low. If there is a pullback due to some profit-taking, it would rather be an entry opportunity to look for a suitable average position.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 76600
Second resistance level: 77300
Support level reference:
First support level: 75800
Second support level: 75400
Today's trading advice:
If the current uptrend continues, although it won’t be in the short term, the possibility of testing 80000 will also increase, so it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be a rise in the lows and a refresh of the highs. If the highs temporarily move down, a closing of the K-line can be seen as an entry opportunity for a short-term adjustment.
In today's trading, as we are currently in an uptrend, it is recommended to maintain a rebound perspective for trading. The upward momentum is strong, so holding short positions carries high risks; it is advised to only pay short-term attention to downward opportunities, with psychological resistance levels at 78000 and 78500.
Yesterday, in my article, I mentioned a short-term layout to enter long positions around 74500. At 10:45 PM, the price dropped as low as 74508. After the Federal Reserve's decision was announced, Bitcoin rose to a high of 76900. I believe that fans who followed my advice were pleasantly surprised.
Moreover, the light short positions set around 76400-77000 were successfully triggered early in the morning, with the price dipping to around 75500, securing a 1400-point gain.
11.8 My planned setup:
Long entry reference: 74600-75000 range long Target: 75800-76600
Short entry reference: 76850-77300 light short position Target: 75800-75400
