The relationship between divergence and peaking
The relationship between divergence and peaking can be compared to sufficient but not necessary conditions in mathematics. In most cases, when the market peaks, it is indeed accompanied by the appearance of top divergence, but the top divergence itself does not necessarily mean that the market is about to peak. To confirm whether the top divergence means the peak, it is usually necessary to confirm it with a subsequent decline.
At present, although the rise of Bitcoin shows a top divergence trend, it is not clear whether the top has been formed, and it is necessary to wait for the subsequent price reaction to confirm. At present, the price is around 66K, which means that the current upward trend is still a top divergence rise, but it cannot be asserted that the top has been reached.
From the perspective of the macro environment, I don’t think the situation next year will necessarily be more favorable than it is now. The current policy tendencies of the Trump administration include a strong dollar and strong fiscal policy, which may lead to high inflation while limiting the room for interest rate cuts, which will lead to a tight monetary policy. Therefore, the real market benefits still depend on improvements at the policy and regulatory levels, as well as further advancement of institutional adoption.
