The 'White House race' has officially begun! At midnight Eastern Time on November 5, voters in the small town of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, were the first to start voting, marking the official start of the 60th U.S. presidential election voting.
In terms of capturing the votes of key voters, both candidates have their respective advantages. Polls also show that the support rates of the two candidates are close, even within the margin of error, which means that either Trump or Harris could lead by two to three percentage points and both could easily win.
Regardless of who ultimately wins, it will be a highly historically significant election result. If Trump wins, he will become the first president in 130 years to seek re-election after losing. If Harris wins, she will become the first female president in U.S. history.
This article summarizes five reasons why both candidates have a chance of winning.
Reasons why Trump could win
1. He is not the current president
The economy is the number one concern for American voters. Despite the current low unemployment rate and a continuously rising stock market, most Americans say they are struggling daily with high prices. Post-pandemic inflation in the U.S. has reached its highest level since the 1970s, giving Trump an opportunity to ask, 'Are you better off now than you were four years ago?'
In 2024, voters in multiple countries will have ousted ruling parties several times, partly due to the high cost of living in the post-pandemic era. American voters also seem eager for change. Currently, only a quarter of Americans are satisfied with the direction of the country’s economy, while two-thirds are pessimistic about economic prospects.
Although Harris also tries to present herself as a 'change candidate', as Vice President, she finds it difficult to distance herself from the unpopular Biden administration. Trump is different.
2. He is 'immune' to bad news
Despite the consequences of the January 6, 2021, Capitol riots, a series of accusations, and unprecedented criminal convictions, Trump's approval ratings remained above 40% throughout the year. Bad news seemed like good news for him; after his conviction, his poll support and fundraising amounts significantly increased.
Although Democrats and conservatives who 'never support Trump' believe he is unfit for office, most Republicans agree with Trump's claims, considering him a victim of 'political witch hunts.'
Under the circumstances where both sides hold firm positions, he only needs to win over a small number of voters who have not yet formed fixed opinions about him.
3. His warnings about illegal immigration resonate
Aside from the economic situation, election outcomes are often influenced by some emotionally appealing issues. Democrats will pin their hopes on abortion issues, while Trump bets on immigration issues.
During Biden's administration, the number of illegal immigrants at the border reached record levels, and the immigration wave affected states far from the border. Polls show that voters trust Trump more on immigration issues, and he is performing better than ever among Latino voters.
4. Lower education levels among supporters
Trump's appeal to forgotten and abandoned voters has changed American politics, turning historically Democratic-leaning groups, such as union workers, into Republican voters and making protective tariffs for American industries nearly the norm.
If he can increase turnout in rural and suburban areas of key states, he can make up for the losses caused by moderate, college-educated Republicans switching sides.
5. In a turbulent world, he is seen as a 'strongman'
Critics argue that Trump's foreign policy weakened America's alliances. However, Trump believes his 'elusiveness' is an advantage and points out that during his last presidential term, there were no major wars globally.
Many Americans feel angered for various reasons over the billions of dollars in aid the U.S. has provided to Ukraine and Israel, believing that the U.S. under Biden is weaker.
Most voters, especially the male voters attracted to Trump through podcasts hosted by people like Joe Rogan, see Trump as a more powerful leader than Harris.
Reasons why Harris could win
1. She is not Trump
Despite Trump's advantages, he remains a highly controversial figure. In 2020, he set a record for the number of popular votes for a Republican candidate, but ultimately lost due to 7 million voters switching to support Biden.
This time, Harris has played the 'fear card', calling Trump a 'fascist' and a threat to democracy, vowing to end the 'drama and conflict' he brings.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in July showed that four out of five Americans believe the U.S. is gradually out of control. Harris hopes that voters, especially moderate Republicans and independents, will see her as a stable candidate.
2. She is also not Biden
Before Biden exited the race, the Democrats were almost destined to fail. Eager to defeat Trump, Democrats quickly rallied around Harris. She swiftly conveyed a more forward-looking message, inspiring the 'base' (the staunch supporters of the Democratic Party).
Although Republicans associate her with some unpopular policies of Biden, Harris has rendered some of the attacks on Biden ineffective. The most notable of which is age. Previously, voters had genuine concerns about Biden's health. Now the situation has reversed, with Trump becoming the oldest candidate ever to run for the White House.
3. She is a defender of women's rights
This is the first presidential election since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and the constitutional right to abortion. Voters concerned about abortion rights overwhelmingly support Harris. In past elections, especially the 2022 midterms, we have seen this issue significantly drive turnout and influence results.
This time, 10 states, including the swing state of Arizona, will allow voters to decide how to manage abortion on the ballot, which could boost Harris's support.
Additionally, the historic significance of her becoming the first female president in American history may further enhance her substantial lead among female voters.
4. Her voters are more likely to vote
Groups more inclined to support Harris in polls, such as college-educated voters and senior citizens, are often more likely to vote on election day.
Democrats tend to perform better among high-turnout groups, while Trump has made progress among relatively low-turnout groups, such as young men and those without college degrees. For example, a New York Times/Siena poll shows that Trump has a significant lead among those who registered but did not vote in 2020.
Therefore, the key question is whether these voters will turn out to vote.
5. She has raised and spent more campaign funds
The costs of campaigning for the U.S. elections are high, and 2024 is expected to be the most expensive yet.
In terms of funding, Harris has the advantage. An analysis by the Financial Times shows that since she became a candidate in July, her fundraising has surpassed Trump's total since January 2023, and her campaign team has spent nearly twice as much on advertising as Trump. This could play a crucial role in a fiercely contested election determined by swing state voters.
Article shared from: Jinshi Data