After Bitcoin rose to around 69,200 last night, it lacked the momentum to break through and fell all the way down, forming a trap for bulls before plummeting to a low of 66,800. Now that shorts are covering, it has caused a market rebound, but this doesn't mean the bulls have disappeared; they just haven't acted yet, perhaps accumulating energy. The future indicator of whether the bulls will make a significant move is whether they can stand above the four-hour life line.
The news remains unchanged as everyone is waiting to see who wins the election. In the 24 hours leading up to it, short positions are about twice the size of long positions. Under significant news impact, avoiding opening positions can help outperform over 80% of people.
In the past decade, Bitcoin's performance in November and December during two election years has been:
2020: November increased by 42.95%, December increased by 46.92%
2016: November increased by 5.42%, December increased by 30.8%
It can be seen that Bitcoin had a 100% chance of closing higher in November and December after the results of the last two elections were announced, and it can almost be said that these were the months with the highest increase of that year.
Bitcoin and U.S. stocks often rise in election years, closely following the election results; however, it is worth noting that history does not simply repeat itself.
Bitcoin's market share hits a two-year high
It is worth mentioning that, according to TradingView data, Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) has currently reached 60%, setting a historical high since 2021.
Looking back at history, when Bitcoin's market share exceeds 50%, it indicates a stronger dominant position in the overall cryptocurrency market, possibly signaling the early stages of a bull market or increased market risk aversion; conversely, as Bitcoin's market share gradually declines and prices correct, it may indicate funds flowing out of Bitcoin, triggering an altcoin explosion.
‘Give me a vote in the election, I'm voting for Harris’
So will the market crash after this year's election?
Today, November 5, is the day of the U.S. presidential election. Now, no matter where you look, everyone is wondering how the market will respond to the election results. Let's do a brief summary of the most popular 'speculations' right now.
The first and most popular speculation: the market will crash after the election. 'Buy the rumor, sell the news' is what everyone is saying. If the market does crash, it could be a 'black swan' event.
The second speculation that many people believe: If Trump wins, the market will surge first, then correct, and then rise again. If Kamala wins, it will drop first and then slowly recover.
The third speculation comes from historical prices. In previous elections, BTC dropped to its lowest price and never returned. In other words, after each election, BTC prices surged and never returned to pre-election levels.
Social media and news have many other speculations and predictions. These three are the most popular, but we all know that the more popular a speculation is, the less likely it is to happen. So, it's better to do your own research!
Short-term Bitcoin trends! If Trump wins, BTC will take off. If Harris wins, BTC will drop. But in the long run, regardless of who is elected, BTC will surely break 100,000 in the next one to two years.
The election may give rise to a major dark horse!
DOGE
In the high market cap coins, DOGE is the first meme coin. DOGE has gained political significance, which is related to Musk's support for Trump. On August 20, Musk tweeted about creating a 'Department of Political Efficiency', abbreviated as D.O.G.E, a concept proposed by the DOGE community. Trump responded that if elected, he would establish this department and audit government finances to reduce waste, thus linking the price of DOGE to the election.
It now has a market cap of 25.5B, with a 14-day price fluctuation of +48%, driven by Musk's posts and Trump's campaigning.
From November 5 to November 8, we will welcome the 'Super Week' of 2024, with three major events:
1. On November 5, the U.S. election officially begins, and results are expected around noon on November 6, which will significantly stir global assets;
2. From November 4 to 8, China's 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee may review details related to fiscal stimulus policies, with market rumors of a strong stimulus plan being introduced;
3. On November 8, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will decide whether to further lower interest rates to stimulate the market.
These three major events will determine the future trends of U.S. stocks, A-shares, and the cryptocurrency market for a period of time, leading to significant market fluctuations; let's wait and see!!
