After the odds indicators in the betting market began to shift towards Harris last weekend, the 'whale' betting on Trump to win the presidential election found himself in a losing position on Polymarket.
According to data compiled by Polymarket and Business Insider, as of Monday morning, this mysterious individual had approximately $3 million in unrealized losses across four known accounts.
Over the past week, this bettor's unrealized gains and losses have seen severe fluctuations, accelerated by a shocking poll released last weekend in Iowa. The poll showed Harris leading over the former president in this staunchly red state (referring to support for the Republican Party).
As of the end of October, before Trump's betting odds began to decline, this 'whale' had already realized approximately $10 million in unrealized gains.
He registered four accounts on Polymarket, with one account named Theo4 suffering the largest losses, with cumulative losses of $2.5 million as of Monday morning.
Speculation about the identity and motives of the people behind these accounts has sparked lots of theories about what might be happening in recent weeks.
However, in a report by The Wall Street Journal, sources contacted by the paper said these bets were just a strong conviction about the election results. He revealed that he is a former bank trader from France with a background in American life.
"My goal is to make money," the man, who calls himself Theo, said last week during a Zoom call with a reporter from The Wall Street Journal.
"I absolutely have no political agenda," he said in an email to The Wall Street Journal.
If Trump wins the election, Theo could earn an $80 million bonus, or if Harris wins, he could lose a total of $30 million invested across various bets.
The Wall Street Journal notes that due to the enormous scale of his bets and relatively low market liquidity, this individual has been trapped in the trade.
According to Polymarket, Theo controls about 25% of the contracts betting on Trump winning the 'Electoral College' vote, and over 40% of the contracts betting on Trump winning the popular vote.
If Theo clears these contracts before Tuesday's election, he is likely unable to sell all positions at the current price, as excessive selling pressure could significantly lower contract prices.
For example, according to Polymarket, assuming Theo sells 47 million contracts betting on Trump winning the 'Electoral College' vote, the estimated average price is only $0.02, which means a 96% loss for the trader. Theo paid an average price of about $0.56 for these 47 million contracts.
Meanwhile, according to Polymarket, if Theo sells nearly 20 million contracts betting on Trump winning the popular vote, the average price will be less than $0.1, almost a total loss.
Due to the size of the bets, Theo admitted he felt nervous, although he believes Trump has an 80%-90% chance of winning the election.
"Unexpected things always happen," he told The Wall Street Journal.
Article forwarded from: Jin Shi Data
