Recent Fundamental News

1. This week's focus is mainly on the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and the interest rate decision on November 8, while other data has relatively less impact in the context of these major events.

U.S. Election:

The U.S. election is entering the home stretch, with intensifying competition between the Democratic and Republican parties. Previous data showed Trump leading Harris by over 60% in support, but recent polls indicate that the two are nearly tied. The interpretation of poll data reflected in prices is as follows:

Trump's poll data peaked at 67%, with BTC hitting a historical high near 73776, followed by a decline despite significant positive news on non-farm payrolls. The causes of the downturn are as follows: U.S. media exposed platforms suspected of wash trading, leading to a rapid drop in his winning probability. Despite BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF seeing the largest single-day net inflow, the previous largest crypto exchange Mt.Gox's liquidation triggered panic.

Currently, attention needs to be paid to the performance of different factions in swing states. According to market news, Trump is leading Harris in 7 swing states, appearing to have a greater chance of winning, but until the official results are announced, the risk of uncertainty is gradually increasing, so caution is required.

2. According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 98%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 1.1%. Given the high consistency in market expectations, combined with the recent rise, one must be wary of the risk of buying expectations and selling facts.

3. In terms of data, the overall BTC spot ETF is still showing significant net inflows. Since Trump is defined as a pro-cryptocurrency president, his poll data still indicates a considerable winning edge, and market expectations for his victory have led to optimism regarding the prospects for cryptocurrencies.