This week's focus is mainly on the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and the interest rate decision on November 8. Against the backdrop of these two significant events, the impact of other data is relatively small.
U.S. Election
The U.S. election has entered its final sprint stage, with competition between the Democratic and Republican candidates becoming increasingly intense. Previous data indicated that Trump's approval rating exceeded 60%, far ahead of Harris. However, recent polling data shows that their support levels are nearly equal. The interpretation of the impact of polling data on prices is as follows:
When Trump's polling data peaked at 67%, Bitcoin reached a historical high of around 73776. However, during the subsequent decline, despite significantly positive non-farm data, prices continued to fall.
The main reason for the decline is that American media exposed a platform suspected of wash trading, which caused Trump's winning probability to drop sharply.
Although BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF saw the largest single-day net inflow, the liquidation of assets by the former largest cryptocurrency exchange Mt.Gox triggered market panic.
Currently, we need to pay close attention to the performance of different camps in swing states. According to market news reports, Trump is performing better than Harris in 7 swing states, suggesting a higher probability of his victory. However, before the official results are announced, the risk of uncertainty is gradually increasing, and we need to maintain a cautious attitude.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in November is as high as 98%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 1.1%. Given the high consensus in market expectations on this matter, combined with the recent market rally, we need to be wary of the risk of "buying the expectation and selling the fact."
Data-related Situation
From a data perspective, the Bitcoin spot ETF continues to show a significant net inflow.
As Trump is seen as a cryptocurrency-friendly president and his polling data still indicates a considerable chance of victory, the market's expectations for his increased winning probability have triggered optimistic sentiment regarding the cryptocurrency outlook.
