November 2024 is destined to be extraordinary. This month has a combination of elections, interest rate cuts, and tech sector earnings, making it a week that significantly impacts the financial market trends. Therefore, everyone must remain highly vigilant this week.
First half of 2024: BTC ETF approval; BTC reaches new historical highs; BTC halving;
Second half of 2024: Federal Reserve starts interest rate cut cycle; U.S. election.
This week's two super events affecting the market trend:
Tuesday - U.S. election, will it be Republican Trump re-elected, or will the first female president of the Democratic Party take office? The answer will soon be revealed.
Friday - Federal Reserve interest rate decision, expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.
These two events will cause significant fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market and will affect our wallet balances... Will it be left or right... Let's wait and see.
In the coming week, the tech sector will release earnings reports. The rise of U.S. stocks is mainly supported by the tech sector. If the tech sector does not meet expectations, it will also affect market trends.
BTC $68,000 support level battle, tomorrow is the 5th election, results will be out on the 6th. It’s time to buy big or small, the levels are still those levels, and the trend remains unclear.
Let's first talk about the betting data on the election:
I see many people continuously using betting data from Polymarket to look at the U.S. election. Personally, I think this data is actually quite subjective, after all, it is all betting data from non-U.S. users.
If you must look at betting data, it’s best to look at U.S. domestic betting websites regarding election bets, such as Kalshi and BetOnline. I just saw that Kalshi's latest data has over $100 million in bets, and the probability of Trump winning has risen by 6% to 53%.
Of course, personally, I think betting data is actually at the very bottom of the data chain for observing changes in election situations. It sways with media propaganda, polls, and early voting information changes, and is an emotional data rather than an objective one.
There is also a historical experience data to refer to, which is that in the past seven elections, the closer it gets to the election, the faster the expectations change, and market volatility continues to increase. The period one to two weeks after the election is also a time of high volatility. Once two weeks after the election pass, market volatility will decrease rapidly; this is a stage of transition from uncertainty to certainty for the market.
Now let's talk about the impact of the election on cryptocurrencies:
No matter who wins, it will not affect the long-term narrative. So let's discuss the short term:
If Trump loses, there will be a short-term decline, but the extent will not be large, and the market outlook remains optimistic.
Over the weekend, the market has welcomed a pullback trend due to Trump's declining approval ratings. This trend can be said to be the market digesting some of the negative implications of Trump's potential defeat in advance.
If Trump wins: Since there has already been a pullback last weekend, there will not be a large-scale pullback after the election, and it is very likely to break new highs.
If Harris wins: The market will decline in the short term, but the extent will not be large, and there is no possibility of dropping below $50,000 or $40,000. So everyone should not panic blindly. The Bitcoin behind the election hype has substantial support, and we still remain optimistic about next year's market trend.
As participants in the financial market, remember not to use news expectations to make judgment calls on market trends:
Whether you are defending or trading based on the positions given by the market, remember not to rely on news to make expectations. The market will react, and emotional responses can lead to risk avoidance or unexpected drastic reversals.
So how to proceed now? The market trend is simply first down then up, or first up then down:
First up: Then combine with the target position. These are the several levels given since March: 7.4, 8.1, 8.6. When reaching these positions, reduce positions as needed.
First down: Then it will be more painful, clear leverage and wash chips, we just need to continue adding positions at the points where we should.
