The two most important events this week:
Retail investors’ fantasies are:
- Harris was elected, Bitcoin plummeted 📉50%
- Trump was elected, Bitcoin soared 📈10w
1. The election results on November 5 may be announced that evening. I still remember the last time Trump was elected, the market went from the upper limit to the lower limit, and many people went bankrupt in one day.
2. If the interest rate is cut at the interest rate meeting on November 6th to November 7th, it may be said that there will be a wave of increases. If there is no cut, it is very likely that it will continue along the original trend. According to the non-agricultural data, the interest rate is expected to be reduced by 25 basis points at this meeting. However, if these two things are combined, the situation will become complicated and there may be a big fluctuation.
The structure of this round of Bitcoin market is clear, and whether Trump or Harris is elected, it will not destroy the market structure. The dealer is responsible for the market trend and for maximizing his own interests, not for Trump or Harris.
Therefore, after the election results come out at noon on the 6th, the market volatility may be far lower than most people expect. This has been verified countless times, such as the night of the interest rate cut, and Trump's participation in the Bitcoin conference.
The most likely scenario is that after the election results come out, there will be a spike upwards/downwards. Then the market will continue to move in the same direction. The structure of the Bitcoin market is complete after more than half a year of a series of actions such as price drop/shock/forced fundraising/accumulation, and will not be destroyed by a single event.
The benefits of the US election to market makers are both positive and negative use, increasing volatility, increasing market divergence, and having stories to tell. The US election is the most advantageous tool for market makers to tell stories after ETFs.
If the King of Understanding loses, I'm doomed.
This is not what I said, this is what Musk, the biggest supporter of Trump, said.
Why do I say that? It's simple. As of the end of last month, Musk had spent 1.32 billion US dollars on Trump, and even used his money to intervene in the vote (one million per day). If Trump loses, Musk will face multiple charges, and the Dogecoin he supports will also be hit.
Today's BTC market analysis: From the K-line, the 1-hour level is rising, the 4-hour level is rising, the 12-hour level is falling (there has been a stop-fall phenomenon), and the daily level is falling. The intraday pressure level is 70,000 and the support level is 67,300 US dollars.
Why do people keep asking if there is a copycat season?
This question is really a noob! First of all, I will tell you clearly!
There will be altcoin seasons, and there will also be explosive pulls or new sectors appearing!! However! Not all altcoins will pull! Some coins are no longer popular!
Some coins have become Dao! ! For some knockoffs, you will only get a notice of delisting, not a bombing! ! People should wake up! You must! !
In this market, only BTC and ETH are more stable! Or you can buy some high-quality coins at the bottom and slowly place orders to enter the market! Don't just hold on to counterfeit coins, because it is possible that the coin you think is very good is actually a piece of garbage! !
Be rational and reject fomo
Which copycats will take off after the election?
The most directly related copycats during the election are MAGA and kama, which are the exclusive copycats of Trump and Haha Sister respectively. With Haha Sister's temporary lead, Kama has had three big green columns since the beginning of this month. On the other hand, Trump's MAGA has fallen from the end of last month to now, and the same is true for Musk's Dogecoin. This is the narrative nature of the copycat Dogecoin, which is influenced by Internet hot spots and celebrity calls.
The local dog and sparrow food industry has created many stories of getting rich quickly, but we still want to remind everyone to be cautious and not to blindly follow the trend.
Virtual currency collapses, 100,000 people liquidated...
In the past week, the virtual currency market has fluctuated violently, Bitcoin has suffered a large-scale sell-off, and the price has fallen rapidly, breaking through the three integer thresholds of US$73,000, US$72,000, and US$71,000 in succession, breaking through the lowest point of US$70,000 and falling to US$68,272 per coin.
Other currencies in the virtual currency market have all plummeted. BAN fell 35% in 24 hours, SUI fell 5% in 24 hours, PEOPLE fell 9% in 24 hours, and LISTA fell 14% in 24 hours. According to Coingecko data, the total market value of cryptocurrencies fell below $2.3 trillion, with a 24-hour drop of nearly 2.13%, and more than $88 billion (about RMB 630.1 billion) in market value evaporated.
According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, more than 100,000 people in the virtual currency market had their positions liquidated, with a total amount of $235 million, including $194 million in long positions and $40.45 million in short positions. The largest single position was $9.97 million.
The tragic situation of the liquidation is still vivid in my mind. Finally, I advise all coin friends not to touch the contract, just move forward steadily, not to soar high. Life is short, take fewer detours, and cherish the present. The contract is fun for a while, but it will eventually leave at zero.
The recent market situation has made many brothers anxious
The structure of this round of Bitcoin market is clear, and whether Trump or Harris is elected, it will not destroy the market structure. The dealer is responsible for the market trend and for maximizing his own interests, not for Trump or Harris.
Therefore, after the election results come out, the market volatility may be much lower than most people expect. This has been verified countless times, such as the night of the interest rate cut, and Trump's participation in the Bitcoin conference.
I still have the same attitude. In this round of market, I won’t release the eagle until I see the rabbit.
Overall strategy:
Spot: Before the election results are announced, give up the contract market; if you do spot trading, it will only be a small position, short-term orders, so you will definitely look for a point or pattern that you are very satisfied with before you take action. If not, you will choose not to do it.
Copycats: All copycats have been eliminated above the cost price. The next time to purchase will be when the external environment is stable, the trend of the big bitcoin is stable, and the second batch will be made after the big bitcoin breaks through the previous high and confirms the main rise.
In the past three months, except for meme-type tokens, none of the other so-called value coins have performed well! This has dealt a huge blow to the market!
Having said that, don’t be overly pessimistic. For long-term investment, you should pick up chips when you should. For mid-term investment, don’t make a move unless there is a buying point. For short-term investment, you should buy chips quickly during the day. If there is an opportunity, you should buy them. If there is no opportunity, just wait!
One very clear point:
Whether Trump or Harris is elected, there will be no change to the fundamentals of Bitcoin. The bull market is opening, the halving trend is unfolding, global consensus is deepening, institutional buying of ETFs is and will continue to flow in crazily, and a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is inevitable... BTC is inevitably going to be between $100,000 and $200,000 next year!
