October employment data is weak, expectations for interest rate cuts are increasing

The U.S. non-farm payrolls for October released last night showed an increase of 12,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of 113,000, but slightly higher than Bloomberg's pessimistic forecast of 10,000; the U.S. unemployment rate in October was 4.1%, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous value.

However, upon closer inspection, the 4.1% unemployment rate for both September and October are rounded numbers, with September's actual rate being 4.05% and October's at 4.14%, indicating that the unemployment rate actually increased by 0.09% month-over-month in October.

This suggests that the job market is indeed becoming weaker, although this weakness is partially attributed to one-time factors such as hurricanes and strikes, it will still strengthen the market's expectations for interest rate cuts.

CME interest rate futures show that expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November and a continued rate cut in December have both increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in November rising from 91% to 99.6%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut by December increasing from 69.4% to 82.1%.

Overall, the employment data released yesterday for October has reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts without leading to recession expectations, which is considered a good outcome for the cryptocurrency market.

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